Patrick Everson
FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst
The Dallas Cowboys are on the highway towards an NFC North opponent for the second week in a row. After falling to the Inexperienced Bay Packers in extra time, the 'Boys now face the red-hot Minnesota Vikings in arguably essentially the most engaging sport on the NFL Week 11 odds board.
In the meantime, faculty soccer Week 12 odds, can TCU actually hold this up and land within the School Soccer Playoff? The Horned Frogs go to Baylor within the Massive Midday on FOX sport Saturday.
These video games and extra NFL/faculty soccer betting nuggets are right here!
Chiefs stay atop Nick's Week 11 NFL Tiers; Cowboys, Payments plummet & 49ers rise
Nick Wright, Chris Broussard, Kevin Wildes and James Jones reveal Nick's NFL Tiers getting into Week 11 within the NFL.
You Like That!
We will solely assume that Vikings QB Kirk Cousins very a lot favored what occurred final week in Buffalo. In a loopy sport that each groups tried to offer away as a lot as win, Minnesota gained 33-30 in extra time as a 6.5-point underdog.
It’s actually a resume-building victory, taking down the Payments, who stay the favourite within the Tremendous Bowl odds market at FOX Wager. For the reason that Philadelphia Eagles suffered their first lack of the season, the Vikings at the moment are tied with Philly for the perfect report within the NFL. (Extra on the Eagles under.)
Minnesota is 8-1 straight up (SU) however a middling 4-4-1 towards the unfold (ATS). Nonetheless, the Vikes are 3-0-1 ATS of their final 4 video games. And but, the Vikes are brief residence ‘canine towards the Cowboys (6-3 SU and ATS).
What makes the road much more attention-grabbing for this sport is this could be the primary time since 1976 {that a} group 8-1 or higher (beginning its common quarterback) was a house underdog, per FOX Sports activities Analysis. The Raiders' quaterback Ken Stabler and coach John Madden have been two-point residence underdogs towards the Bengals in 1976, profitable outright in a Week 13 matchup.
To dig into the unfold additional, we spoke with WynnBet senior dealer John Manica.
"Are the Vikings 8-1 good? It’s a good query in case you ask me," Manica stated. "[Vikings-Bills] was deemed the sport of the yr up to now within the NFL, and one may put it within the miracle win class for the Vikings. That’s coupled with a forgettable loss for the Cowboys."
Certainly. Dallas let a 28-14 fourth-quarter lead slip away at Inexperienced Bay, in the end shedding 31-28 in extra time.
"You will have the Cowboys favored on the highway on this NFC showdown," Manica stated of a 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff. "The Vikings gained a notable outside highway sport towards a profitable group, and that's value one thing. A number of bets got here in on Vikings at +1.5 and +1, which received the legal responsibility and ticket rely going up rapidly. Individuals will see an 8-1 group as a house ‘canine, making this really feel like simple cash.
"[But] the market didn't react strongly to this motion, conserving the quantity in the identical spot. The Cowboys are dwell within the NFC, particularly after the Eagles’ loss, and can pour out every part right here towards the Vikings. In the long run, I imagine we are going to see robust Cowboys backing. It simply hasn’t proven up but. The general public is prone to discover the Vikings, and the bigger bets will present up on the Cowboys in a while within the week."
The Sharp Aspect
In the meantime, Inexperienced Bay’s win over Dallas halted a five-game SU and 1-5 ATS slide. The Packers (4-6 SU and ATS) at the moment are on a brief week however taking part in at residence once more towards the Tennessee Titans (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS) on Thursday evening.
The Titans are 6-1 SU of their final seven video games and have coated the unfold in all seven. However one sharp NFL bettor fired on the Packers early this week.
"I performed Inexperienced Bay moneyline when it opened, at -123," he stated. "For my part, the road has now gotten away."
The Packers at the moment are within the -175 vary on the moneyline, whereas the unfold has gone from Inexperienced Bay -1.5 to -3.
The sharp bettor additionally likes the Saints and Commanders this week. He took the Saints at -2 and -3 at residence towards the flagging and injury-wracked Los Angeles Rams. New Orleans is now as much as -3.5.
And he’s on Washington -2.5 on the Houston Texans, a quantity he wager final week on a look-ahead line. Washington is now -3.5.
"The Rams have the worst offensive line since I can bear in mind. I'd play New Orleans whatever the quantity this week," he stated. "And the Commanders have among the best rosters in professional soccer, they’re a really underrated group."
That actually gave the impression to be the case within the Week 10 Monday Evening Soccer matchup. Washington (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) ran throughout beforehand unbeaten Philadelphia, notching a 32-21 victory as an 11.5-point highway underdog.
Have the Eagles Landed?
Talking of the Eagles, they have been the final of the NFL unbeatens for weeks, and most thought they’d run their report to 9-0 SU towards the Commanders. However it wasn’t to be, and Philly now sits at 8-1 SU/5-4 ATS.
Up subsequent: A visit to Indianapolis to face the Colts (4-5-1 SU, 4-6 ATS), who gained of their first sport below interim coach Jeff Saturday. Indy was a 4-point highway underdog towards the Las Vegas Raiders and notched a 25-20 victory.
Rex Beyers, a veteran oddsmaker and presently the top of wagering at PlayUp USA, has been an Eagles detractor all through the season. And he’s not backing off that place this week.
"We'd like Philly to win and never cowl as of now, but it surely’s very early," Beyers stated Wednesday evening, noting the Eagles are 6.5-point favorites. "I like Indianapolis to win the sport outright, and I'd contemplate at the very least some futures costs on the Colts to win the division/AFC, and so forth. As sorry as they've been a lot of the yr, they're nonetheless in some way 4-5-1 and are getting wholesome.
"The Colts will want Tennessee to falter some, or they’ll possible have to win a minimum of 5 of their final seven to get into the playoffs. However the schedule is hardly unmanageable, particularly now that it appears they’ve discovered a coach with management qualities."
Beyers attended the Colts-Raiders sport and observed an enormous distinction with Indy.
"That was not the identical group, particularly on offense," he stated. "I feel a wholesome Matt Ryan and Jonathan Taylor assist the Colts do to the Eagles precisely what the Commanders did Monday: Go up and down the sphere and run scads of performs whereas doing so, irritating the Philly offense that’s caught on the bench within the course of.
"Don't be shocked with one other outright upset. And Philly’s bye [in Week 7] appears to have come at precisely the mistaken time. The season will proceed to unravel right here, me thinks."
School Soccer Rocks on FOX
Let’s bounce to the faculty gridiron and that aforementioned TCU-Baylor tilt in Waco. The Massive Midday on FOX sport is extraordinarily huge for the Horned Frogs, who're 10-0 SU and are the best-spread protecting group within the nation at 8-1-1 ATS.
All TCU does is win and money each week, and did so final week as a 7.5-point highway underdog to Texas. The Horned Frogs posted a 17-10 victory to stay No. 4 within the CFP rankings. Baylor (6-4 SU and ATS) is coming off a surprising 31-3 residence loss as a 2.5-point favourite towards Kansas State.
TCU is a 2.5-point favourite towards Baylor, and Beyers stated there’s not a lot to this sport but at his store. However he is aware of the place the sharp play shall be – if the quantity is true.
"Sharps would certainly wager Baylor at +3," Beyers stated.
With the way in which the Horned Frogs have paid off for bettors all season, there’s little doubt the general public/leisure clientele shall be on TCU this week.
"The Frogs are coming off a decent, low-scoring sport with Texas final week, and Baylor couldn’t discover its offense, placing up 3 factors towards a ranked Kansas state group," FOX Wager sports activities dealer AndiRose Buccola stated. "The road at TCU -2.5 is favorable for TCU followers, even taking part in on the highway in Waco this weekend. The Frogs have their CFP lives on the road and can play prefer it on Saturday."
FOX additionally airs a Pac-12 showdown Saturday evening. USC (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) – making an attempt to stay within the School Soccer Playoff dialog – travels to face crosstown rival UCLA (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS).
The Trojans are consensus 2.5-point favorites for the 8 p.m. ET kickoff.
Wiseguys Again the Bolts
The Los Angeles Chargers have been a stylish offseason play within the Tremendous Bowl odds market. However greater than midway by the season, L.A. is a modest 5-4 SU (6-3 ATS).
After a troublesome highway loss Sunday evening at San Francisco, the Chargers once more play on Sunday evening and face one other robust problem, internet hosting the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS).
For the previous two seasons, a number of oddsmakers famous that sharp bettors typically just like the Chargers as underdogs. That’s the case once more this week, with Kansas Metropolis opening -7 and dropping to -5.5 by midweek.
"It has been all Chargers motion up to now," WynnBet’s Manica stated. "We took respectable wagers [Wednesday], driving our worth and the market all the way down to the present variety of 5.5. The 7s disappeared on Monday morning, bringing us to six.5, the place we stayed with little motion till a wager at +6.5 and two extra shortly after that took us from -6 to -5.5.
"I assume Okay.C. will discover some backers at -5.5, however they haven't proven up but. I anticipate the standard tight sport these two groups have performed towards one another not too long ago. Justin Herbert vs. Patrick Mahomes is elite quarterback play and at all times well worth the watch. The factors are useful on this prime-time matchup."
Again in Week 2, the Chiefs held off the Chargers 27-24, although L.A. coated as a 4-point highway ‘canine.
Why Josh Allen's decline is not so stunning in keeping with Nick Wright
Nick tells Colin why he isn't shocked to see Allen and the Payments on this place after Week 10.
Bounce-back Payments?
Buffalo (6-3 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) is actually smarting from the aforementioned 33-30 residence loss to Minnesota. The Payments get to remain residence once more this week as they try and bounce again. And it appeared as if Josh Allen and Co. must go dashing by the snow in the event that they wished to win on Sunday.
Stated WynnBet’s Manica on Wednesday evening:
"That is going to be an attention-grabbing conflict on Sunday, because the excepted snowstorm is within the [two-foot] vary, with excessive winds additionally anticipated in Orchard Park. The Beneath received completely crushed as soon as trustable climate information got here to the forefront Tuesday. I arrived at WynnBET at 6 a.m. and instantly moved our quantity from 46 to 45, staying with the transfer all the way down to 42.5.
"We noticed some small resistance at totally different ranges on the way in which down, however [Wednesday], we had severe Over bets at 41 and 41.5. Clearly, Beneath 46 or 47 is nice, however which may have gone too far round 41."
Certainly. With a 6-point vary between the very best and lowest totals, WynnBet had a number of actual property to protect towards.
"Individuals taking part in the whole early will certainly be on the lookout for a pleasant center," Manica stated, noting a bettor may’ve performed Beneath 47 Monday and are available again on Over 41 Wednesday.
Nonetheless, on Thursday afternoon, the NFL moved the sport from Buffalo to Detroit, indoors to Ford Area. That modified the entire dynamic of this matchup.
For starters, WynnBet refunded all wagers that have been made earlier than the NFL’s choice. However that wasn’t the case in all places. Home guidelines differ from guide to guide; for instance, at The SuperBook, all bets are dwell motion, no matter the place the sport is performed.
All sportsbooks then took the sport off the board and reposted with odds higher reflecting a neutral-site sport at an indoor stadium. The consensus new line: Payments -7.5, with a complete of 48.5.
Previous to the choice to maneuver the sport, Manica famous the Browns have been getting early motion. Bettors anticipated dangerous climate to hamper Buffalo and its high-octane offense extra so than Cleveland, with the potential for a low-scoring and shut sport. The Payments opened -9.5 at WynnBet and received wager all the way down to -8.
Now, though the Payments should journey, the road appears as if it can solely regulate a half-point to -7.5, for the second. And the whole received that huge increase, with no climate to account for.
Does This Look Proper to You?
The New York Giants are much better than oddsmakers and bettors anticipated this season, presently sitting at 7-2 SU and ATS. In the meantime, the Detroit Lions are 3-6 SU/5-4 ATS. However the G-Males are solely 3-point residence favorites in Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.
That’s partially as a result of Lions rising up the final two weeks, with a 15-9 residence win over Inexperienced Bay and a 31-30 highway victory over Chicago. New York additionally gained final week however was lackluster in a 24-16 highway victory over Houston.
"Detroit outscored Chicago 21-6 within the fourth quarter final week, and the Giants wanted each yard of Saquon Barkley’s 152 dashing yards to get previous a weak Texans group," FOX Wager’s Buccola stated. "The Lions’ protection is enhancing weekly, and [the Lions are] discovering a technique to win on the finish of their video games. The Giants discover themselves outdoors the highest 15 in all 4 win-rate classes: move rush, move block, run block and run cease.
"This shall be a troublesome matchup for New York, whilst a house favourite."
I Like Massive Bets and I Can not Lie
Sportsbooks haven’t but reported a lot in the way in which of #MajorWagers on NFL Week 11 or faculty soccer Week 12 video games. However a few leftovers from Monday Evening Soccer discovered one bettor delighted and the opposite depleted.
Caesars Sports activities had a buyer put $95,000 on the Commanders +11 towards the host Eagles. As famous above, Washington nabbed the beautiful 32-21 outright victory, Philadelphia’s first lack of the season.
On the flip facet was a high-roller with BetMGM, hoping to only play it protected by betting the Eagles on the moneyline. All Philly needed to do was win the sport. The bettor put a whopping $331,000 on Eagles -550, and if Philly had gained, that buyer would’ve netted $60,182.
It’s fairly good ROI – so long as the large favourite wins. If not, properly, not a lot.
So I’ll remind you all: By no means wager greater than you may afford to lose. Have enjoyable with this. #ChilisMoney and all that. Benefit from the soccer this weekend.
Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He's a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting house. He’s based mostly in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Comply with him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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Publish date: 2022-11-18 04:16:23
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