Patrick Everson
FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst
More often than not, when a wildly widespread favourite loses within the NFL, many bettors additionally commiserate.
However the public additionally likes playing a little bit to win lots. Or not less than much more than you may win betting on the purpose unfold.
Such was the case with the Payments-Jets moneyline within the NFL Week 9 odds market. Fairly a couple of folks took fliers on the double-digit underdog Jets to win outright. So whereas the bookies usually had an enormous Sunday, some bettors bought a worthwhile W in that matchup.
Gang Inexperienced Upset Machine
The Tremendous Bowl favourite Buffalo Payments are extensively thought-about one of the best crew within the NFL, however they didn’t seem like it in Week 9.
Buffalo’s explosive offense mustered simply two TDs and a area aim, shedding to the New York Jets 20-17. From a betting perspective, the Payments closed as consensus 10.5-point highway favorites. Most public/leisure bettors have been driving excessive on Buffalo, virtually betting them blindly all season lengthy. And little doubt, the Payments have been in a great deal of moneyline parlays Sunday.
However in normal straight moneyline bets, the Jets at +575 or so – which means a $100 wager wins $575 – have been loads enticing. And at these odds, legal responsibility can rapidly add up.
"Our largest loser of the day was Jets moneyline," WynnBet senior dealer Chris Youn stated. "However I’m optimistic that we weren’t the one e book that misplaced there."
Chris Andrews, sportsbook director on the South Level in Las Vegas, would’ve taken a shower on that end result, as effectively. However fortuitously, considered one of his better-bankrolled prospects positioned a $50,000 moneyline parlay wager on Chiefs -600/Eagles -800/Payments -600.
And the Payments did not get there.
"On the Payments sport, we bought flooded with Jets cash on the purpose unfold and the moneyline," Andrews stated. "However that $50,000 parlay minimize into that fairly good. That one parlay saved us a bunch."
On a aspect notice, the Jets surpassed their preseason win whole of 5.5 at most sportsbooks. A very good begin for coach Robert Saleh & Co.
One other Massive Day for the Books
Jets moneyline beneficiaries however, it was, sadly, one other tough NFL Sunday for many bettors. Andrews’ South Level was having a strong day and, to protect it, simply wanted the Tennessee Titans to cowl towards the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs on Sunday night time.
With rookie Malik Willis at QB, the shorthanded Titans closed as 14-point underdogs. However Tennessee truly led greater than half the sport. The Titans misplaced 20-17 in extra time however simply lined in an exclamation-point sport for a number of sportsbooks.
BetMGM vp of buying and selling Jason Scott was additionally glad with that end result, however he dared to assume how extra time may’ve gone if Tennessee had Ryan Tannehill below heart. A Titans outright upset would’ve been a large windfall for his e book and others.
"I by no means thought I'd go to mattress dreaming of what if and what Ryan Tannehill might do in OT," Scott stated.
Nonetheless, BetMGM had no complaints general.
"The early slate was actually good," BetMGM dealer Seamus Magee stated. "The Packers shedding was an ideal end result. The Colts getting smoked was truly a very good end result for us, too.
WynnBet’s Youn concurred on each of these outcomes: The Patriots (-4.5) trucked the Colts 26-3, and the Lions received 15-9 as 4-point house underdogs towards the flailing Packers. Additional, the Seahawks (+1.5) topping host Arizona 31-21 was one other winner for WynnBet.
"Out of all of the Sunday video games, we bought probably the most deal with on the Seahawks-Cardinals, which was attention-grabbing," Youn stated.
What the Bucs?
The SuperBook was an outlier within the NFL Week 9 odds market, with what senior danger supervisor Casey Degnon termed a "small shedding Sunday."
"The Bucs coming again to win and having the sport land on 3 was a foul end result for us," Degnon stated.
Certainly, Tampa Bay bought a final-seconds TD to beat the L.A. Rams 16-13. The Bucs opened as 2-point favorites per week in the past and closed at -3. With Tampa profitable by 3, The SuperBook needed to pay out on all of the Bucs bets at -2/-2.5, and needed to refund all of the Bucs -3/Rams +3 bets.
"The Bengals blowing out the Panthers was additionally a shedding end result," Degnon stated, alluding to Cincinnati’s 42-21 rout as 7-point house favorites.
Again to College
Tennessee-Georgia was only a monster sport by way of whole cash wagered at sportsbooks throughout the nation. The general public continued its Vols love affair, on each the unfold and on the moneyline to drag the outright upset. So Georgia’s 27-13 victory as a 10-point favourite was one other large winner for the books.
"Phenomenal end result," BetMGM’s Magee stated. "It appears to be like like our largest single-game [win] of the yr in faculty soccer."
Added The SuperBook’s Degnon: "Georgia protecting was considered one of our greatest outcomes of the day. We have been undoubtedly rooting for the Dawgs within the danger room."
At WynnBet, Youn stated Wisconsin’s 23-10 win as a 4.5-point house favourite towards Maryland was key. So too was Virginia protecting as a 7.5-point underdog in a 31-28 house loss to North Carolina. However the day was all about Tennessee-Georgia.
"Georgia profitable and protecting was an ideal end result, as we had lopsided motion on Tennessee moneyline bets. The Bulldogs protecting was simply icing on the cake," Youn stated.
Degnon stated LSU’s 32-31 extra time upset of Alabama was one other good end result.
"We have been a small loser on LSU moneyline, however general a small winner on the sport, as a result of we would have liked LSU to cowl," Degnon stated.
The Tigers have been hefty 13.5-point house underdogs towards the Crimson Tide.
I Like Massive Bets and I Can't Lie
Massive bets have been flying everywhere in each faculty soccer and the NFL this previous week. Most notable was a flurry of main wagers that got here in Friday afternoon on Georgia:
- $362,000 on Georgia -8 at Caesars Sports activities
- $110,000 on Georgia -7.5 at Caesars
- $200,000 on Georgia -8 at BetMGM
- $160,000 on Georgia moneyline -300
All these bets bought there because the Bulldogs rolled over Tennessee.
Additionally, forward of the faculty soccer weekend, one Nevada buyer made $560,000 value of bets:
- $120,000 on New Mexico +17 (-120) at Utah State (push; New Mexico loses 27-10)
- $110,000 on Navy +19.5 at Cincinnati (win; Navy loses 20-10)
- $110,000 on Baylor +3.5 at Oklahoma (win; Baylor wins outright 38-35)
- $110,000 Baylor-Oklahoma Over 61 (win; 73 whole factors)
- $110,000 on Duke-Boston School Over 47 (win; 69 whole factors)
In order that bettor went 4-0-1 to money out $400,000 forward. Good work should you can bankroll it, for certain!
Sportsbooks reported some noteworthy large performs within the NFL, too. One bettor at Caesars fired large 3 times:
- $300,000 on Vikings -3 (-120) at Commanders (push)
- $275,000 on Jets +12 vs. Payments (win)
- $325,000 on Saints +3 (-130) vs. Ravens (TBD; Monday Night time Soccer)
Up to now, that buyer is 1-0-1 and is up $250,000, with an opportunity so as to add one other $250,000 if the Saints cowl Monday night time.
BetMGM reported a trio of moneyline wagers from totally different bettors:
- $180,000 on Colts +185 at Patriots (loss)
- $100,000 on Falcons +140 vs. Chargers (loss)
- $100,000 on Vikings -165 at Commanders (win)
As for me, I had a far-more modest #ChilisMoney in-game play on Georgia. After the Bulldogs fumbled on their opening drive, and Tennessee turned it right into a 3-0 lead, I took Georgia -6.5, a line that was 3.5 factors higher than the pre-game variety of Georgia -10.
So Saturday night time, we dined on the best meats and cheeses Chili’s needed to supply. Right here’s hoping your bets this week lead you to the promised land of rooster bacon ranch quesadillas and bottomless chips and salsa.
Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He's a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting area. He’s based mostly in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Comply with him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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Publish date: 2022-11-07 23:23:48
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