Warren Sharp
FOX Sports activities actions NFL Creator
This week's NFL slate choices some good matchups, along with the Vikings-Commanders recreation on FOX.
I ran my fashions to current you my favorite betting edges and predictions for Week 9 of the season. My goal for this weekly column is on a regular basis to supply tidbits you didn’t know sooner than learning.
Just a few the matchups caught out from a betting perspective, so let's check out my favorite edges of the week, with odds courtesy of FOX Guess.
Herd Hierarchy: Seahawks, 49ers make enormous leap in Colin's Excessive 10 of Week 9
Colin Cowherd shares his Excessive 10 teams heading into Week 9.
Panthers at Bengals (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports activities actions App)
Carolina had the game vs. the Falcons correct there for the taking and couldn’t seal the deal. Blame D.J. Moore all you want for eradicating his helmet, nevertheless that's on the kicker for missing not solely that additional degree nevertheless an FG in extra time that can have gained them the game.
Now, they need to journey to play a Bengals group, reeling off a Monday Night time time Soccer freeway loss.
Everyone knows that Joe Burrow has confirmed nice splits when having fun with two-high safeties.
On the 12 months, he’s averaging +0.20 EPA/att in opposition to non-two-high safeties, which ranks No. 2 most interesting inside the NFL.
Nevertheless vs. two-high safeties, he averages -0.01 EPA/att, which ranks barely beneath widespread.
We moreover know that the Carolina Panthers are in a position to having fun with with two-high safeties.
They haven’t completed it as lots, given some accidents inside the secondary, nevertheless in Weeks 1-4, they carried out the No. 6 highest value of two-high safety and ranked top-15 in EPA/att allowed when having fun with two-high safety.
I think about they'll put it to make use of further on this recreation vs. the Bengals, and it will see success.
In Burrow’s first recreation with out Chase, Burrow averaged merely 6.6 YPA.
A big 37% of his makes an try have been behind the highway of scrimmage (No. 3 highest remaining week) after being decrease than 26% on the season sooner than remaining week.
Keep a take care of the availability of Bengals DT D.J. Reader. If he’s out, besides the Bengals massively alter their approach on a short week (one factor you will need to have a number of perception of their offensive coaches to do, and I do not), I’d be making an attempt into backing the Panthers proper right here.
Vikings at Commanders (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports activities actions App)
As soon as we glance to guess on a recreation that features Kirk Cousins, the very very first thing now we now have to ask ourselves is, is that this recreation after 1 p.m.? The second question is, is the safety in a position to getting stress on Cousins?
This recreation is at 1 p.m., so Cousins has that going for him. Nevertheless he'll in all probability be going up in opposition to a extremely strong transfer rush.
At dwelling, Cousins is -0.33 EPA/att when pressured and +0.06 EPA/att when clear.
Nevertheless on the freeway, Cousins is -0.68 EPA/att when pressured and +0.09 EPA/att when clear.
These are among the many largest splits inside the NFL.
Check out Cousins on the freeway when pressured this 12 months:
-0.72 EPA/att, 25% success, 6.2 YPA, 1 TD, 2 INT
It’s not good.
It ranks No. 29 out of 33 QBs this 12 months, ahead of solely the benched Matt Ryan, 12 months 2 QBs Zach Wilson and Mac Jones, and Kyler Murray.
The other difficulty at play is that Washington is an effective stress group.
They rank No. 3 inside the NFL, getting stress on 37% of opposing QB dropbacks. They often blitz at a below-average value, which does help safety to an extent.
Check out the defenses the Vikings have confronted since Week 3 and the place they rank in stress value:
Week 3: DET - No. 26
Week 4: NO - No. 31
Week 5: CHI - No. 28
Week 6: MIA - No. 21
Week 8: ARI - No. 22
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Week 9: WAS - No. 3
The Vikings haven’t carried out anyone remotely close to Washington.
One in all many staples of making an attempt to once more teams, notably freeway teams, is asking your self two questions:
Will this transfer rush impression the passing offense? And should this run safety decelerate the dashing assault?
We already answered the first question.
The reply to the second question is equivalent as the first one: positive.
Washington’s run safety ranks No. 4 inside the NFL.
The Vikings have carried out the NFL’s No. 1 finest schedule of opposing run defenses this season.
From Week 1-5, they did nothing nevertheless play bottom-half run defenses.
Now they face Washington, who has excelled in two key areas which is able to make a distinction on this recreation.
Since Week 3, Washington ranks No. 1 in EPA/rush and No. 2 in opponent yards sooner than contact per RB rush.
A quick scan once more on the defenses the Vikings have carried out vs. the run and we see that in yards sooner than contact per RB rush, they ranked: No. 31, 26, 20, 18, 17, 12 and 7. Now they’re having fun with the No. 2 Commanders.
Secondly, one different key proper right here is that Washington is a top-10 safety vs. runs from 11 personnel. And lots of the Vikings runs are from 11 personnel.
Check out the defenses the Vikings have confronted and their effectivity in opposition to 11 personnel runs: No. 29, 28, 26, 24, 22, 20, 8.
The one above-average offense? No. 8 Miami Dolphins. How did that recreation go?
Throughout the first 56 minutes of the game, Cook dinner dinner had 9 rushes for 17 yards!
That’s correct, 1.9 YPC, -0.38 EPA/att and 11% success.
The Vikings led by decrease than one TD with 4 minutes left, 16-10, and have been taking on the Dolphins third-string QB, Skylar Thompson. And finally, Cook dinner dinner broke free for a 53-yard run with 3:25 left inside the recreation to skew all of his statistics.
Nevertheless he was horrible inside the recreation vs. the one group he’s carried out all season which was respectable in opposition to 11 personnel runs and good at holding RBs to few yards sooner than contact per attempt.
I really feel giving Washington 3.5 components at dwelling is simply too many.
Chargers at Falcons (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports activities actions App)
The Falcons safety ranks lifeless remaining in success value allowed to opposing RB targets on early downs.
Now they need to go up in opposition to the group that makes use of RB targets better than anyone else inside the NFL.
The Chargers have carried out merely seven video video games, whereas all totally different teams inside the prime 5 have carried out eight, nevertheless early-down RB routes run:
333 – LAC
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281 – IND
265 – WAS
265 – NYJ
263 – TB
And RB targets paint the equivalent picture, as all totally different teams have carried out eight video video games whereas the Chargers have carried out solely seven.
73 – LAC
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57 – IND
56 – WAS
54 – TB
54 – NYJ
It’s the Chargers… after which it’s everyone else. Austin Ekeler must feast on this matchup.
He’s not the one one.
So must Justin Herbert.
Herbert may be getting once more the suppliers of his No. 1 WR, Keenan Allen. It’s wild to imagine this, nevertheless Allen has been targeted merely six events all season, and that’s because of he carried out solely part of Week 1 and part of Week 7. However when he’s once more and wherever close to 100% in opposition to the Falcons, it could very nicely be an infinite enhance.
As good as Justin Herbert could also be, like most QBs, he is susceptible to emphasize. Check out his YTD splits on early downs:
Pressured: -0.33 EPA/att, 29% success, 4.4 YPA, 1:2 TD:INT
Not pressured: +0.16 EPA/att, 48% success, 7.1 YPA, 11:2 TD:INT
And the ultimate three video video games the Chargers carried out, take a look on the defenses they confronted ranked by stress value since Week 4:
No. 3 – Denver
No. 10 – Cleveland
No. 17 – Seattle
Now they get the worst stress value group inside the NFL, the Falcons.
We favored the Panthers remaining week because of the Falcons don’t get stress, they enable the easiest completion value, and they also have been down a lot of starters of their secondary.
They’ll nonetheless be down Casey Hayward, for positive. They often already allowed the fourth-most manufacturing to WRs from the slot. This can be an infinite edge for Herbert if he'll get Keenan Allen once more.
Lastly, out of 35 QBs, Justin Herbert ranks No. 32 in value of passes thrown 10-plus yards downfield. This has been a difficulty with Joe Lombardi’s offense and is irritating.
However, on this matchup, it’s actually not a nasty issue.
That’s because of NO TEAM permits further success on early-down passes than the Atlanta Falcons inside the first three quarters.
It’s been insane.
The Falcons are allowing:
+0.26 EPA/att (No. 31)
69% success (No. 32)
81% completions (No. 32)
This might equate to a ton of success for Herbert.
On the alternative side of the ball, the Falcons must be succesful to rely on their dashing assault, which might get the suppliers of Cordarrelle Patterson once more.
Nevertheless even bigger than that will be the straightforward actuality the Chargers are horrible in opposition to the run, and the Falcons have confronted a brutal stretch of run defenses.
Over the past 4 weeks, the Falcons carried out nothing nevertheless top-12 run defenses of the 49ers, Bucs, Bengals and Panthers.
Now they get the Chargers, who rank No. 31 in yards sooner than contact per attempt to RBs.
Furthermore, they rank lifeless remaining in yards AFTER contact per rush.
In order that they get moved off the highway AND they battle to type out correctly.
In consequence, they rank lifeless remaining in YPC allowed to RBs at 6.1 yards.
If allowing 6.1 YPC sounds unhealthy, let’s put it into context.
No group since 2000 allowed over 5.75 YPC to RBs on the season, and the Chargers are at 6.1.
And even within the occasion you take a look on the main eight weeks of a season solely, there's nonetheless not a single group that allowed better than 5.95 YPC to opposing RBs (KC in 2008).
The Chargers are the one group since in any case 2000 to allow 6-plus YPC to RBs inside the first eight weeks of the season.
Marcus Mariota was passing further remaining week, and whereas I don’t know that he’ll transfer a ton on this recreation, as a result of manufacturing Atlanta must see on the underside, he must be pretty setting pleasant when he does transfer.
The Chargers are allowing 9.3 yards per purpose to TE targets (No. 31), which bodes correctly for Kyle Pitts.
Furthermore, the Falcons passing offense is efficiently the anti-Joe Lombardi offense.
They don’t throw beneath the least bit.
They've the fifth-highest value of all passes thrown 10-plus yards downfield and the sixth-highest value of all passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield.
And guess which safety is the worst inside the NFL vs. passes thrown 10-plus yards downfield?
The Chargers.
They're allowing +0.59 EPA/att and 52% success on these passes 10-plus yards downfield, allowing 11.6 YPA.
Although it seems to be like unlikely that Keenan Allen will in all probability be up for this recreation, I think about bets on each the game exceeding your complete or the Falcons exceeding their group full are first price seems to be like on this recreation.
Is Father Time catching as a lot as Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson?
The "FOX NFL Sunday" crew debate whether or not or not father time has caught as a lot as Tom Brady of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Rams at Buccaneers (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
The Rams have carried out each good defenses or horrible defenses this 12 months.
The good news is, after this week, they play nothing nevertheless bottom-half defenses the rest of the season save for a recreation vs. the No. 3 Broncos and a barely above-average Seahawks safety.
The unhealthy info is that this week, they face the top-10 Buccaneers safety.
In the direction of the top-10 defenses they’ve carried out this 12 months, proper right here’s how they carried out:
10 components vs. Buffalo
9 components in opposition to San Francisco
10 components vs. Dallas
14 components in opposition to San Francisco
They misplaced all 4 of those video video games.
In the direction of defenses exterior that top-10 threshold, they scored 31 vs. the Falcons in a win, 24 vs. the Panthers in a win and 20 vs. the Cardinals in a win.
The difficulty with the Bucs safety is two-fold.
First, they’re injured inside the secondary.
Second, the Rams have a steady historic previous of scoring components on this matchup.
These teams have carried out 4 events since Sean McVay turned head coach, along with twice remaining 12 months.
The Rams are 3-1 SU and ATS, and the final word scores:
2019 – Rams loss 55-40
2020 – Rams win 27-24
2021 – Rams win 34-24
2021 – Rams win 30-27
All 4 video video games went over the posted full.
On the alternative side of the ball, it’s not as if this Bucs offense has been buzzing, each. They've carried out certainly one of many finest stretches of defenses this 12 months (No. 22 Saints, 25 Packers, 26 Chiefs and 32 Falcons). In these
Warren Sharp is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports activities actions. He is the founding father of Sharp Soccer Analysis and has labored as a information for league franchises whereas moreover beforehand contributing to ESPN and The Ringer, amongst totally different retailers. He studied engineering sooner than using his statistical acumen to create predictive soccer fashions. You presumably can observe Warren on Twitter at @SharpFootball.
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Publish date: 2022-11-04 03:31:24
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