Week 7 of the NFL season is upon us, and FOX Sports activities Analysis is right here to maintain providing you with the perimeters wanted to make a revenue!
Final week’s piece identified a number of winners. Seven underdogs coated towards the unfold (ATS), with six of them profitable straight up (SU), the Atlanta Falcons gained as underdogs towards the San Francisco 49ers and improved to 6-0 ATS for the primary time in franchise historical past, the Washington Commanders coated towards the Chicago Bears, and Patrick Mahomes didn't cowl and misplaced for the primary time as a house underdog towards the Buffalo Payments.
As all the time, we did a deep dive into the information to determine the most effective traits of the week. We additionally checked out extra team- and player-specific traits, which ought to assist inform you on who to wager on this week.
Let's leap into it and have some enjoyable!
Favorites to cowl in Week 7
Underdogs have been the story of the season in relation to NFL betting, going an astounding 54-38-2 ATS (58.7%). Nonetheless, we took a glance particularly at Week 7 information and located some fascinating outcomes.
From nearly any timeframe up to now 32 years, favorites have traditionally coated in Week 7. Whereas the quilt charges under aren’t considerably over 50%, the development nonetheless factors in a optimistic path. The win charges are exorbitantly excessive as effectively.
Since 2015: 50-45-3 ATS (52.6%) and 70-27-1 SU (72.2%)
Since 2005: 116-112-5 ATS (50.9%) and 161-7-1 SU (95.8%)
Since 2000: 152-145-6 ATS (51.1%) and 208-94-1 SU (68.9%)
Since 1990: 211-205-8 ATS (50.7%) and 293-130-1 SU (69.3%)
Chiefs ought to bounce again towards 49ers
The Chiefs are coming off a four-point loss as house underdogs towards the Payments, however we like them to bounce again towards the 49ers this week. Since 2000, the Chiefs are 5-1 ATS (83.3%) and 3-3 SU (50%) towards San Francisco in regular-season matchups. When going again additional to 1971, Kansas Metropolis is 8-5 ATS (61.5%) and 6-7 SU (46.2%) when enjoying them within the common season.
Moreover, Andy Reid is 15-11 ATS (57.7%) and 16-10 SU (61.5%) when coming off a loss because the Chiefs head coach within the common season. Reid is also 27-18 ATS (60%) and 34-11 SU (75.6%) as a highway favourite in regular-season video games throughout his tenure in Kansas Metropolis. If you wish to place a wager on the Chiefs, FOX Guess has them as 2.5-point favorites.
Patriots ought to cowl towards Bears
This could be the development this week that had probably the most information supporting it. Invoice Belichick and the New England Patriots have been dominant towards NFC North groups within the common season, going 14-10-1 ATS (58.3%) and 18-7 SU (72%) in his tenure. Moreover, the Belichick Patriots are 53-21-3 ATS (71.6%) and 68-9 SU (88.3%) as a six- to eight-point favourite below Belichick.
Within the head-to-head matchup towards the Bears, New England is 3-2-1 ATS (60%) and 5-1 SU (83.3%) below Belichick – with the Over within the Over/Underneath (O/U) hitting in 5 of these video games (83.3%). Lastly, as a house favourite, Belichick’s Patriots are 88-65-4 ATS (57.5%) and 127-30 SU (80.9%). FOX Guess has the Pats as a 7.5-point favourite.
Giants ought to cowl towards Jaguars
This could be probably the most stunning the road of the week, contemplating the New York Giants are 5-1 SU (83.3%) this season. Brian Daboll’s squad is a three-point underdog at FOX Guess towards the Jacksonville Jaguars, who're 2-4 SU (33.3%). Under are a number of traits that time to betting on the G-Males as a worthwhile wager:
– The Giants are 20-10 ATS (66.7%) as highway underdogs since 2018
– The Jaguars are 1-6 ATS and SU (14.3%) as two- to four-point favorites since 2018, with the Underneath hitting in 4 of the seven video games (57.1%)
– The Jaguars have misplaced 18 straight video games towards NFC groups and are 3-16 ATS (15.8%) and 1-18 SU (5.3%) in previous 19 common season video games towards NFC opponents
– The Jaguars are 9-34 ATS (20.9%) and 4-39 SU (9.3%) since 2012 in regular-season video games towards NFC opponents
– The Jaguars are 2-10 ATS (16.7%) and 3-9 SU (25%) as favorites towards NFC opponents since 2009
Buccaneers ought to cowl towards Panthers
A lot of the speak surrounding this season has been about Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers struggles.
Whereas they misplaced as double-digit favorites towards the Pittsburgh Steelers, we like them to cowl in the identical scenario this week towards the Carolina Panthers. Tampa Bay is 8-4 ATS and SU (66.7%) towards Carolina since 2016, and 7-4 ATS (63.6%) and 9-2 SU (81.8%) as a nine- to 12-point favourite since 2018.
Brady has additionally didn't cowl in his final 4 video games, the primary time this has occurred to him because the 2007 season. Groups which have didn't cowl in 4 or extra consecutive video games and enter the next matchup as a double-digit favourite have gained seven straight video games.
It also needs to be price mentioning that the Panthers are 6-10-1 ATS (37.5%) and 5-12 SU (29.4%) as house underdogs since 2018. FOX Guess has the Buccaneers as 10.5-point favorites.
Falcons on a historic betting run
We talked about the Falcons would cowl final week, and never solely did they achieve this however they gained by a whopping two touchdowns towards the 49ers, who performed in final season’s NFC Championship Sport. This week, FOX Guess is giving them 6.5 factors towards final season’s Tremendous Bowl runner-up, the Cincinnati Bengals.
For context, Atlanta is seeking to turn out to be the fifth staff since 1978 to begin a season 7-0 ATS. Since 1978, 14 groups have entered a recreation 6-0 ATS – that means 28.6% of these groups have been in a position to cowl of their seventh recreation, with final 12 months’s Dallas Cowboys squad being the newest to do it.
Listed here are some common season nuggets pointing within the Falcons path this weekend:
– Marcus Mariota is 9-3 ATS (75%) and 6-6 SU (50%) as a starter when a five- to eight-point underdog in his profession
– The Falcons are 10-7-1 ATS (55.6%) as a highway underdog since 2020
– The Falcons are 2-2 ATS and SU (50%) towards the Bengals since 2005
– The Falcons are 5-1 ATS (83.3%) of their previous six video games performed in October
– The Bengals are 6-8 ATS (42.9%) as a house favourite since 2018
– The Bengals are 4-6 ATS (40%) as a house favourite below Zac Taylor
Groups to go 7-0 ATS since 1978 have been the 2021 Cowboys, 2018 Chiefs, 2008 Tennessee Titans and 2007 Patriots.
So are you prepared to put some NFL Week 7 bets? Head over to FOX Guess now for all of your wagers!
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Publish date: 2022-10-20 11:24:10
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