NFL odds week 6: Sportsbooks win because of underdogs, upsets

By Patrick Everson
FOX Sports activities Playing Author

For NFL bettors and bookmakers alike, Oct. 16 couldn’t arrive quick sufficient this season. There is no query the Buffalo Payments vs. Kansas Metropolis Chiefs rematch was circled in crimson on the NFL Week 6 odds board.

And whereas Sunday’s version didn’t flip into the wild scorefest of final season’s AFC playoff recreation, it was compelling to the end and bought a unique ending, besides.

So how did the sportsbooks do to arguably the largest recreation of the common season? Let’s name it a blended bag.

Circle the Wagons

Within the epic January postseason recreation, Buffalo misplaced the extra time coin toss and by no means touched the ball. Patrick Mahomes and Kansas Metropolis drove down the sphere, scored a landing to win 42-36 and lined as 2.5-point house favorites.

The Chiefs have been once more at house this time, however apparently, the Payments have been 2.5-point favorites. With 1:04 left within the fourth quarter, Josh Allen discovered Dawson Knox on a 14-yard landing move, giving Buffalo a 24-20 lead.

However that additionally left 1:04 for Mahomes to work some magic. This time, although, he threw an INT, permitting the Payments to achieve some measure of revenge. No less than one sportsbook was simply superb with that end result.

"The Payments protecting was the most effective particular person results of the day," stated Casey Degnon, senior threat supervisor at The SuperBook.

Previous to kickoff, SuperBook government director John Murray famous a Okay.C. cash surge led to a Buffalo want behind the counter.

"Some large late bets on the Chiefs," Murray stated.

That stated, each the Payments and Chiefs drew a ton of betting motion, so the outcomes weren’t essentially the identical from sportsbook to sportsbook.

"The Payments have been a loser for us," BetMGM vice chairman of buying and selling Jason Scott stated.

Beat-Up Bettors

Past the cut up outcomes for Payments-Chiefs, bettors usually had a tough Sunday within the NFL Week 6 odds market. That’s what occurs when underdogs bark loud and sometimes early within the day.

The New York Jets went to Inexperienced Bay as 7.5-point underdogs and knocked out the Packers 27-10. The New York Giants, 5.5-point house ‘canines to Baltimore, nabbed a 24-20 outright win.

And the Pittsburgh Steelers, who only a week earlier bought trucked at Buffalo 38-3, put the clamps on Tom Brady and Co. The Steelers, 10-point house underdogs, shocked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-18.

All these video games have been within the early window Sunday. So, too, was the Atlanta Falcons’ 28-14 house victory as 3.5-point pups in opposition to the San Francisco 49ers. (Extra on Atlanta in a second.)

"It was a successful day, however the first slate made all the cash," BetMGM’s Scott stated.

Added The SuperBook’s Degnon: "The Steelers and Jets not solely protecting however successful outright was an excellent end result for us, killing a bunch of parlays and teasers."

Over at WynnBet, three early upsets and one late outright underdog win have been key.

"The Jets, Giants, Steelers and Seahawks getting there have been undoubtedly nice for the e book," WynnBet senior dealer Chris Youn stated.

In a rock battle of a recreation, Seattle – a 2.5-point house underdog – beat the Arizona Cardinals 19-9.

The NFL’s Finest Wager

Now then, about these Falcons. Not a lot was anticipated from Atlanta this season, with most sportsbooks posting the Falcons’ season win whole at 5 or 5.5. However Atlanta is already greater than midway there, sitting at 3-3 straight up (SU).

Far more related for functions of this report: The Falcons are 6-0 in opposition to the unfold (ATS). No different group within the league can match that document, and bettors are undoubtedly beginning to determine that out.

Sharp bettors – those that make a residing on this enterprise – have been already on the Falcons in prior weeks. However they didn’t again off in any respect in Week 6, and the professionals have been confirmed appropriate. That was a lot to the chagrin of the South Level sportsbook’s threat room.

"The Bengals have been unhealthy for us, the Vikings have been unhealthy for us, and the Falcons have been horrible," South Level sportsbook director Chris Andrews stated. "We opened [Atlanta] +6 and closed +3.5, and it was sharp play all the best way down. Wiseguys have been on the Falcons like they already knew the ultimate rating."

Nonetheless, Andrews stated it was a successful NFL week at his store.

"A superb day, however in all probability inferior to you’d suppose," he stated. "We gained two large video games, with the Steelers beating the Bucs and the Jets beating the Packers."

WynnBet’s Youn echoed Andrews’ sentiments on Cincinnati and Minnesota. The Bengals, 3-point favorites, posted a 30-26 comeback win and canopy at New Orleans. The Vikings, 3.5-point favorites at Miami, gained 24-16.

"Sizable losses have been taken on the Bengals and Vikings," Youn stated.

On Campus

Within the faculty ranks, clearly, the Alabama-Tennessee recreation was an enormous determination for all sportsbooks. And just about universally, the Vols’ 52-49 outright victory as 9-point house underdogs was incredible for bettors, as outlined on this FOX Sports activities piece.

However there was extra to Saturday than ‘Bama-Tennessee. The Vols’ upset win wasn’t sufficient to place bettors over the Rocky High at The SuperBook.

"It was a great Saturday for the e book," Degnon stated. "Michigan placing it on Penn State in Ann Arbor was our greatest end result. LSU successful in The Swamp was additionally excellent for us."

The Wolverines closed as 7-point favorites and pounded the Nittany Lions 41-17. LSU was a modest 1.5-point highway underdog and took out Florida 45-35.

With solely a few exceptions, WynnBet had a strong Saturday, too.

"Tennessee and Oklahoma State protecting have been our largest selections, and they didn't go our method. Moreover that, we had respectable outcomes on the remainder of the video games," Youn stated.

Oklahoma State was a classy underdog at Texas Christian. Though the Cowboys misplaced 43-40, they lined the 5-point unfold.

I Like Huge Bets and I Can't Lie

Caesars Sports activities had a few excessive rollers toss round some cash on NFL Week 6 odds. One buyer made a pair $110,000 bets – with every representing a possible $100,000 win – on the Panthers +10 vs. the Rams, and on the Vikings-Dolphins Below on a complete of 46.

The Carolina wager got here up a number of factors brief, because the Panthers misplaced 24-10. However Minnesota and Miami mixed for simply 40 factors within the Vikes’ 24-16 win, countering the bettor’s $110,000 loss with a $100,000 win.

The Chiefs drew a $57,500 play at +3 (-115) in opposition to the Payments. Alas, the Chiefs misplaced by 4, 24-20, in order that’s one other winner for the bookmakers.

And whereas Caesars didn’t specify the precise variety of bets or the quantity wagered, the Denver Broncos have taken a number of unfold bets of a minimum of $55,000 for the Monday evening highway recreation in opposition to the Los Angeles Chargers. Denver is a 4.5-point underdog.

Being a Broncos fan and having seen the product they’ve placed on the sphere of late, I wouldn’t wager $55,000 of your cash on Denver, not to mention my very own money. However that’s simply me.

Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He's a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting area. He’s primarily based in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Observe him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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