NFL odds Week 6: Mahomes a house underdog for first time, finest betting tendencies

Week 6 of the NFL season is upon us, and FOX Sports activities Analysis is right here to maintain supplying you with the perimeters wanted to make a revenue! 

Final week’s piece identified a couple of winners. 4 highway underdogs of seven or extra factors coated in opposition to the unfold (ATS), the Buffalo Payments improved to 7-2-2 ATS (77.8%) and 10-1 straight up (SU) (90.9%) as double-digit favorites underneath Sean McDermott, and two of the 4 matchups with an Over/Underneath of 43 factors or fewer hit the Over. 

As all the time, we did a deep dive into the information to determine one of the best tendencies of the week. We additionally checked out extra coach — and participant — particular tendencies, which ought to assist inform you on who to wager on this week.

Let's bounce into it, and have some enjoyable!

Underdogs have been dominant by 5 weeks, Week 6 must be no totally different

This previous week we noticed underdogs completely crush it, going 10-6 ATS (62.5%) with 5 of them successful SU as nicely. For the reason that season began, underdogs have gone a whopping 47-31-2 ATS (60.3%). That's the highest cowl share for underdogs by the primary 5 weeks of the season since 2010, when underdogs went 46-28-2 ATS (62.2%).  

When trying particularly at Week 6 from a historic perspective, underdogs present a powerful pattern for protecting:

• Since 2015: 61-35-3 ATS (63.5%)
• Since 2010: 97-68-5 ATS (58.8%)
• Since 2005: 130-100-7 ATS (56.5%)
• Since 2000: 168-130-8 ATS (56.4%)
• Since 1990: 223-190-15 ATS (54%)
• Since 1980: 297-240-16 ATS (55.3%)

Proven within the tweet under are the underdogs and favorites for every matchup this week with odds coming from FOX Guess. 

Falcons have coated in opposition to NFC West opponents lately

The Atlanta Falcons have arguably been the most important shock of the season up to now, already incomes two wins regardless of their over/underneath win complete being set round 5 throughout most sportsbooks. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS, the one workforce to have an ideal cowl fee up to now. The final time Atlanta was 5-0 ATS was the 1969 season, which was the final season earlier than the NFL and AFL formally merged.

Whereas FOX Guess at the moment has them as 5.5-point underdogs in opposition to the San Francisco 49ers, we like them to proceed their pattern of protecting. Since 2014, they're 11-5 ATS (68.8%) and 8-8 SU (50%) in opposition to NFC West opponents and 5-3 ATS (62.5%) and SU in opposition to the 49ers since 2005 within the common season. 

San Francisco can also be simply 5-8 ATS (38.5%) when a 5 to eight level favourite underneath Kyle Shanahan, in addition to 9-9 ATS (50%) as highway favorites in common season video games underneath his watch.  

The Commanders ought to cowl in opposition to the Bears

FOX Guess at the moment has the Washington Commanders as one-point underdogs in opposition to the Chicago Bears this Thursday, recent off a loss in opposition to the Tennessee Titans. Our knowledge pointed to numerous tendencies that favor the Commanders, right here’s a take a look at probably the most notable ones:                 

• Commanders are 11-3 ATS (78.6%) and SU in opposition to the Bears since 1991 within the common season
• Commanders are 8-1 ATS (88.9%) and 7-2 SU (77.8%) on the highway in opposition to the Bears since 1981 within the common season
• Commanders have hit the over in 9 of their final 11 (81.8%) Thursday video games
• Bears are 5-14 ATS (26.3%) in opposition to NFC East opponents in common season since 2013

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Historic knowledge factors in direction of Panthers protecting in opposition to Rams

This one is a shocker, contemplating Baker Mayfield has struggled but in addition been dominated out this Sunday within the Carolina Panthers matchup in opposition to the Los Angeles Rams, however our knowledge says that Carolina has a strong likelihood of protecting in opposition to the defending Tremendous Bowl champions. Since 2014, the Panthers are 6-3 ATS (66.7%) when eight to 11 level underdogs and in addition 7-6-2 ATS (53.8%) and 8-7 SU (53.3%) in opposition to NFC West opponents since 2015.

Moreover, the Panthers fired Matt Rhule earlier this week after hiring him in 2020. Whereas this may be one other indicator to wager in opposition to Carolina, right here’s a stunning nugget on groups on this state of affairs:

• Over the past 20 seasons, 32 groups have fired their coach through the common season. These groups have gone 15-17 SU (46.9%) and 17-15 ATS (53.1%) within the week after firing their coach.

Let’s additionally not neglect that P.J. Walker might be beginning for the Panthers on this matchup, and is 2-0 ATS and SU for his profession as a starter. Moreover, the Rams are simply 2-4-1 ATS (33.3%) and 2-5 SU (28.6%) in opposition to the Panthers since 2004 within the common season. They’re additionally tied for the worst cowl fee within the league at 1-4 ATS (20%) this season. FOX Guess at the moment has the Panthers as 10.5-point underdogs.

Chargers ought to cowl vs Broncos

This one must be apparent, because the Denver Broncos have struggled all yr, having scored over 20 factors in simply one among 5 video games and falling to 1-4 ATS. The Los Angeles Chargers then again improved to 4-1 ATS (80%) final week and are available as 5.5-point favorites in opposition to Denver. Listed below are some tendencies that time in direction of the Chargers caring for enterprise within the Monday evening matchup: 

• Broncos are 5-8 ATS (38.5%) and 2-11 SU (15.4%) in opposition to AFC West opponents within the common season since 2020
• Broncos are 3-7 ATS (30%) and SU of their final 10 common season highway video games
• Broncos are 4-10-1 ATS (28.6%) and 5-10 (33.3%) in Monday video games since 2010  

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Patrick Mahomes is a house underdog for the primary time in profession

Be aware a lot of a pattern right here as it's a good nugget, however the significance of how dominant Patrick Mahomes has been in his profession can’t be emphasised sufficient. Since his first profession begin at dwelling in 2018, the sixth-year quarterback has NEVER been an underdog in Arrowhead Stadium in each the playoffs and common season.

FOX Guess at the moment has the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs as 2.5-point underdogs in opposition to the Payments, with that line having moved one level in Buffalo’s route after the Chiefs’ slim one-point win in opposition to the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday evening. Right here’s what the betting knowledge seems like for Mahomes total for his profession, together with each the common season and playoffs:

• 7-0-1 ATS and 6-2 SU (75%) as a starter when an underdog (all 8 cases approaching the highway within the common season)
• 3-1 ATS (75%) and 3-1 SU as a starter in opposition to the Payments
• 7-3 ATS (70%) and 7-3 SU as a starter in opposition to AFC East opponents
• 4.5 is probably the most factors he’s been given as a starter when an underdog, coming in opposition to the Pittsburgh Steelers in a Week 2 matchup in 2018
• 21-20 ATS (51.2%) and 33-8 SU (80.5%) as a starter at dwelling

So are you prepared to put some NFL Week 6 bets? Head over to FOX Guess now for all of your wagers!

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