NFL odds Week 6: How sharp bettors are taking part in Cowboys-Eagles, Payments-Chiefs

By Patrick Everson
FOX Sports activities Playing Author

Sunday’s conflict between the Buffalo Payments and Kansas Metropolis Chiefs might be likened to a type of Nineteen Eighties advertisements for an FM radio station:

Lock it in, and rip off the dial.

Payments at Chiefs is definitely essentially the most enticing matchup on the NFL Week 6 oddsboard and essentially the most anticipated recreation of the common season. That’s due totally to the ridiculously entertaining playoff recreation between these two groups final January.

Following are insights on the Payments-Chiefs showdown and Penn State-Michigan, together with a number of extra betting nuggets on NFL Week 6 odds and faculty soccer Week 7 odds.

Circle the Wagons

Within the AFC Divisional Playoffs final season, the Payments and Chiefs fought to a 36-36 attract regulation after an insane closing two minutes at Arrowhead Stadium.

To recount: Josh Allen led Buffalo to a landing and 2-point conversion with 1:54 remaining, giving the Payments a 29-26 lead. Patrick Mahomes and Ok.C. adopted simply 52 seconds later with a landing to maneuver forward, 33-29.

A mere 49 seconds later, the Payments put up one other TD to nab a 36-33 lead. That left simply 13 seconds on the clock.

However Mahomes rapidly maneuvered the Chiefs into place for a 39-yard area purpose, tying it at 36 to power additional time. Then the Chiefs gained the coin toss and drove proper down the sector to win, 42-36.

The Payments have been stewing ever since. And on this occasion, they return to Kansas Metropolis as 2.5-point street favorites relatively than 2.5-point underdogs, as was the case in January.

"There's a lot to unpack on this recreation," WynnBet dealer John Manica mentioned. "The WynnBet mantra in 2021 was no one circles the wagons just like the Buffalo Payments, and our buying and selling room booked towards all of them week main as much as the basic final season."

What Manica means by that: WynnBet took a place on that recreation wherein it wanted a Buffalo street victory, or a minimum of for the Payments to cowl as 2.5-point underdogs. With a unique coin-toss end result, WynnBet’s danger room may need gotten the result it sought. However alas …

"Ache ensued when Kansas Metropolis pulled off the miracle area purpose and gained in additional time. I'm not certain if we've got totally recovered from it," Manica mentioned. "Quick-forward to the rematch, and each groups appear to be they're the category of the AFC. We've taken heavy motion on Ok.C. at plus-money on the moneyline."

Certainly, it’s uncommon for the Chiefs to be an underdog, and much more so a house underdog. Actually, that is the primary time Mahomes is a house underdog in his profession. Some bettors are forgoing the two.5 factors and as a substitute taking Kansas Metropolis to win outright at +125 for a greater payout.

However as Manica famous, there’s rather a lot to unpack.

"There are a number of conflicting betting angles within the recreation, he mentioned. "The Payments have the super-revenge angle however are off a blowout win. Then you've gotten a Kansas Metropolis workforce that gained a detailed Monday Night time Soccer recreation in opposition to a divisional opponent. That is usually a state of affairs the place the workforce off a blowout win will get overrated. The house-field benefit at Arrowhead is actual, as one other basic showdown is probably going within the playing cards.

"This one is up for grabs for sharps and leisure bettors. I anticipate the house ‘canine Kansas Metropolis cash to pile on, and as soon as once more [us] needing the Payments."

The Sharp Facet

At the very least one skilled bettor has already taken a place – twice – on the large Payments-Chiefs conflict.

"I took Buffalo -2, and I took Buffalo decide ‘em on the look-ahead quantity [last week], as properly," he mentioned. "Buffalo is the most effective workforce within the NFL. The line of defense would be the distinction."

The Payments enter Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff at 4-1 straight up (SU) and 3-1-1 in opposition to the unfold (ATS). The Chiefs are additionally 4-1 SU however simply 2-3 ATS. Buffalo and Kansas Metropolis are Nos. 1 and a couple of, respectively, in odds to win the Tremendous Bowl.

One other play for this sharp bettor goes in opposition to the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals.

"New Orleans +2. The Cincinnati offensive line might be examined on this matchup," he mentioned. "And Michael Thomas ought to be again for the Saints. Take the house workforce."

Bengals-Saints is a 1 p.m. ET Sunday begin.

Faculty Soccer Rocks on FOX

Let’s return to highschool for a number of moments right here, as there are some monster video games within the faculty soccer Week 6 odds market. A type of is the Huge Midday on FOX battle between two Huge Ten unbeatens: No. 10 Penn State at No. 5 Michigan.

Michigan is 6-0 SU/3-3 ATS, whereas Penn State is 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS. Skilled bettors leaned into the Nittany Lions early this week at The SuperBook, and the general public appears to love Penn State a bit, too.

"Sharp play on Penn State +7.5 and on Beneath 53," SuperBook danger supervisor/oddsmaker Neil Fitzroy mentioned, alluding to betting on the unfold and the overall. "There’s loads of Penn State assist at +7, as properly. Fifty-seven p.c of [point-spread] tickets are on Penn State.

"There’s restricted curiosity on Michigan at -7. I wouldn’t be shocked if this closes Michigan -6.5."

In distinction, WynnBet is seeing the landing house favourite get somewhat extra consideration.

"We have been writing an honest variety of tickets on either side, however a majority of the [money] is on Michigan at this level," WynnBet junior dealer Caden Wickwire mentioned.

In one other FOX-televised recreation, No. 7 USC places its 6-0 SU mark (4-2 ATS) on the road in opposition to No. 20 Utah (4-2 SU and ATS). Apparently, the Utes are consensus 3.5-point house favorites, however USC is getting a lot of the consideration.

"Sharp play on USC at +4, and 79% of tickets on USC," Fitzroy mentioned of motion by Wednesday night time at The SuperBook, for this 8 p.m. ET Saturday night time showdown.

Staying in Faculty

Saturday’s largest matchup is within the SEC, with No. 3 Alabama touring to No. 6 Tennessee. Very similar to Penn State-Michigan, the winner on this conflict of unbeatens stays on observe within the Faculty Soccer Playoff chase, whereas the trail will get way more troublesome for the loser.

Alabama (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) is a consensus 7-point favourite, however oddsmakers at a number of sportsbooks – together with The SuperBook – mentioned Tennessee (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) is sort of widespread this week.

"The cash and ticket rely [favored] Tennessee at +7.5. We’re at the moment at 7, and there’s nonetheless little interest in ‘Bama," The SuperBook’s Fitzroy mentioned.

Kickoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Sunday Night time Lights

Heading again to the NFL, the unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) host the stunning Dallas Cowboys (4-1 SU and ATS). Dallas has been with out Dak Prescott (thumb) since Week 1 and isn’t anticipated to have him within the Sunday night time recreation both. However the Cowboys are 4-0 SU and ATS behind backup QB Cooper Rush and a stable protection.

"Dallas discovered nice fortune in opposition to the Rams final week, having a number of key conditions break its manner," WynnBet dealer John Manica mentioned of the Cowboys’ 22-10 upset of the host Rams. "The underlying numbers for the Eagles present that they're each bit pretty much as good as their 5-0 document. Nevertheless, some will query the power of their opponents.

"We took a pointy early wager on the Eagles -5.5. However very similar to final week, the Cowboys’ type and a low whole of 42 will definitely stimulate motion on the Cowboys, who're at the moment at +6. I anticipate a excessive quantity of wagers on this prime-time conflict, with opinions forming on each side of the present quantity."

Down and Out

Miami can’t maintain its quarterbacks wholesome, which is definitely impacting the NFL Week 6 odds for the Dolphins’ house tilt in opposition to the Minnesota Vikings. Tua Tagovailoa stays in concussion protocol, and so too does backup Teddy Bridgewater. So third-string rookie Skylar Thompson will get the beginning.

The Dolphins are consensus 3.5-point underdogs, together with at WynnBet.

"The quarterback state of affairs for the Dolphins is in unhealthy form," Manica mentioned. "In comes the third-stringer Skylar Thompson, who [played] a lot of the recreation final week in opposition to the Jets when Teddy Bridgewater went down. That have is definitely useful, because the Vikings come into an setting that they often have bother with – out of doors street video games. Examine [Minnesota’s] outcome in opposition to the Eagles earlier this yr. It was a 24-7 beatdown at Philadelphia, and it was not that shut."

Manica famous that final week’s look-ahead line for this recreation was a decide ‘em however now sits at Vikes -3.5 because of the Dolphins’ QB scarcity. Bettors aren’t actually keen on both workforce.

"Laying 3.5 with the Vikings outside or taking a third-string quarterback has not been an interesting set-up for bettors to this point," Manica mentioned. "I do anticipate cash to come back in on the Vikings, as the general public will certainly prefer to again the workforce with a greater document in comparison with an unknown quarterback. Maybe an upset is brewing."

Over at FOXBet, buying and selling operations senior supervisor Dylan Brossman mentioned as of Wednesday night time, the Vikings are one in every of this week’s hottest bets to cowl the unfold. Additionally widespread: the San Francisco 49ers, who're 5.5-point favorites on the Atlanta Falcons.

That’s a wrap on this midweek report. Could all of your bets be winners!

Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He's a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting area. He’s based mostly in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Observe him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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