Week 5 of the NFL season is upon us, and FOX Sports activities Analysis is right here to maintain providing you with the perimeters wanted to make a revenue this week.
Final week’s traits piece identified a number of winners.
4 highway underdogs coated in opposition to the unfold (ATS), Kliff Kingsbury improved to 8-0 ATS and straight up (SU) as a highway underdog in regular-season video games since final yr, the Las Vegas Raiders coated and earned their first win and the Dallas Cowboys continued their betting dominance in opposition to NFC East opponents with a win over the Washington Commanders.
As all the time, we did a deep dive into the info and dissected general patterns to establish the perfect traits of the week. We additionally checked out extra coach- and player-specific traits, which ought to assist inform you on who to wager on this week.
Let's soar into it, and have some enjoyable!
The Over hits in Week 5 video games with an Over/Underneath of 43 or much less
Since 2000, the Over hit in 82 of 137 Week 5 video games (59.9%) during which the overall was listed at 43 or decrease. When wanting on the similar conditions since 2005, the Over hit in 53 of 89 such video games (59.6%). And taking a look at a newer pattern dimension, since 2010, the Over has hit in 27 of 45 video games (60%) with a degree whole of 43 or much less.
Getting into this weekend, there are 4 video games with an Over/Underneath level whole of 43 or much less.
The video games that match the invoice are (totals offered by FOX Guess):
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (42.5)
New York Giants at Inexperienced Bay Packers (40.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (38.5)
Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders (42.5)
Residence favorites of seven to 14 factors don’t cowl as typically as you’d assume in Week 5
Week 5 options 5 video games with favorites of seven or extra factors, with all six favorites coming at residence. We determined to take a look at how typically residence favorites of seven to 14 factors have coated the unfold in Week 5 video games traditionally. The outcomes are listed under:
- Since 2018: 6-7 ATS (46.2%)
- Since 2015: 8-11-1 ATS (42.1%)
- Since 2010: 17-15-1 ATS (53.1%)
- Since 2005: 22-18-2 ATS (55%)
- Since 2000: 25-29-3 ATS (46.3%)
As you may see above, the duvet fee is under 50% when going again to 2015 and 2018. Whereas it jumps up when taking a look at charges from 2005 and 2010, it drops again considerably to 46.3% when wanting on the proportion of covers since 2000. In easy phrases, it hasn't been worthwhile to wager on groups to cowl in these conditions.
FOX Guess's spreads for every of the six video games that match this weekend are:
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Payments (-14)
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7)
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9)
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-7.5)
Payments cowl as double-digit favorites
The Payments coated as double-digit favorites in opposition to the Titans earlier this season, and historical past says they’ll do it once more this week in opposition to the Steelers.
As we talked about in our Week 2 publish, Buffalo is dominant below Sean McDermott as double-digit favorites. Underneath his watch, the Payments have gone 6-2-2 ATS (75%) and 9-1 SU (90%) in such conditions. McDermott and the Payments have additionally been a gradual cowl as residence favorites, going 16-9-3 ATS (64%) and 23-5 SU (82.1%) in these video games.
FOX Guess at present has the Payments as 14-point favorites.
If you happen to’re questioning what they're as a 14-point favourite or bigger below McDermott, they’ve gone 3-2-2 ATS (60%) and 6-1 SU (85.7%) in these video games.
Lions ought to cowl in opposition to the Patriots
This one is likely to be a bit shocking, contemplating the Detroit Lions' perennial struggles, however there are a whole lot of knowledge factors of their path.
Since 2018, Detroit is 15-13 ATS (53.6%) as a highway underdog and likewise 6-4 ATS (60%) in such conditions below Dan Campbell. Probably probably the most eye-opening nugget is that the Lions are 14-7 ATS (66.7%) general going again to final season, tied with the Packers for the second-best cowl proportion within the common season in that span (Cowboys are first).
It’s additionally fascinating that the Lions are underdogs because the standing of New England quarterbacks Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer continues to be unsure. Ought to they each be dominated out, Bailey Zappe will make his first profession NFL begin. One thing to keep watch over.
Search for the Chiefs to cowl in opposition to the Raiders
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs placed on a dominant efficiency in opposition to the Buccaneers final week, and they need to cowl once more this week. Whereas we stated earlier that residence favorites of seven to 14 factors don’t cowl too typically in Week 5, the Chiefs are the exception right here — particularly as a result of they’re enjoying the Raiders. Underneath Andy Reid, the Chiefs are a whopping 7-2 ATS (77.8%) and 8-1 SU (88.9%) at residence when enjoying the Raiders. Total, Kansas Metropolis is 12-6 ATS (66.7%) and 15-3 SU (88.3%) in opposition to the Raiders below Reid. One thing of word is the Over has hit in 10 of these 18 matchups (55.6%).
Different knowledge doesn’t level within the Raiders' path both. Since 2018, they've been 6-7 ATS (46.2%) and 5-8 SU (38.5%) on the highway in opposition to AFC West opponents. FOX Guess at present has the Chiefs as a 7.5-point favourite in Monday’s matchup.
Dolphins ought to cowl in opposition to the Jets
Regardless of Tua Tagovailoa being dominated out for Sunday’s recreation in opposition to the New York Jets, the Miami Dolphins have been dominant on this matchup in recent times. Since 2016, Miami is 9-2-1 ATS (81.8%) and 10-2 SU (83.3%) when enjoying the Jets, with the Underneath hitting in seven of these 12 video games (58.3%).
The Dolphins are additionally 17-8-1 ATS (68%) and 15-11 SU (57.7%) in opposition to AFC East opponents since 2018, and extra particularly, they’re 7-4-1 ATS (63.6%) on the highway when enjoying division opponents throughout that very same time span.
It must also be talked about that Teddy Bridgewater will get the beginning for the Dolphins. Bridgewater is an astounding 24-6 ATS (80%) as a starter in highway video games. The Miami native is 5-2 ATS (71.4%), and SU as a highway favourite.
So are you prepared to put some NFL Week 5 bets? Head over to FOX Guess now for all of your wagers!
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