By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports activities NFL Analyst
NFL Week 3 ended up being stuffed with surprises.
The Dolphins staged a miraculous fourth-quarter comeback in opposition to the Payments, Matt Ryan rallied the Colts to topple the Chiefs, and the Panthers received their first win with Baker Mayfield as their quarterback.
Properly, the groups I am focusing my wagers on this week should not have too many surprises up their sleeves. I say that as a result of, after three weeks of enjoying ball, we've got a good suggestion of what every of those NFL groups is manufactured from.
So let's dive into my greatest bets for NFL Week 4 as I am highlighting wagers that ought to hopefully get us all some additional money. With odds by way of FOX Guess, after all.
Dolphins @ Bengals (8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Prime Video)
If this contest was being performed on a Sunday, I'd lean towards taking the factors with the highway staff. The Dolphins have stunned us with their begin this season. They're 3-0 and had a 21-point comeback win at Baltimore and a hard-fought victory in opposition to the Payments on Sunday. That tough-fought victory is the explanation why the Dolphins will wrestle on Thursday Night time Soccer.
Their protection performed 90 snaps in opposition to the Buffalo offense, permitting over 500 yards however doing simply sufficient to maintain Josh Allen out of the top zone. Turning round to play a Thursday sport after that output on Sunday will likely be extraordinarily powerful on their our bodies. Belief me on this one.
The Bengals' offense has had some points this season. They're ranked thirty first in DVOA, however we noticed enchancment final weekend in opposition to that poor Jets protection. The Bengals have the weapons to assault the Dolphins' cover-zero defensive schemes. Whereas I've some fear in regards to the Bengals being ready for the zero stress, in the event that they do hit one or two of these, they may rating loads of factors to cowl.
The Bengals' offense has struggled, however their protection has not. Cincy's protection is ranked seventh in DVOA. Defensive finish Trey Hendrickson was simply named AFC participant of the week after he had 2.5 sacks on Sunday.
The Dolphins' offense could be potent. However exterior their 28-point fourth quarter in Baltimore, they’ve scored 55 factors in 11 quarters. I feel the Bengals' secondary, a unit that has confirmed it will probably shut down Tyreek Hill, will do sufficient on Thursday to decelerate the Dolphins' offense which is able to assist them cowl in the long run.
PICK: Dolphins (+3.5 at FOX Guess) to lose by fewer than 3.5 factors (or win outright)
Jaguars @ Eagles (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
When the NFL schedule dropped in the course of Might, I doubt many people had this sport marked as a marquee matchup between two groups on the rise. The Eagles are 3-0 and appear to be the staff to beat within the NFC. They're powered by their trench play, together with a defensive position that sacked Carson Wentz 9 occasions on Sunday. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has continued to enhance his play, and this offense seems unstoppable, particularly when scoring 48 first-half factors within the final two weeks.
Jacksonville smoked the Colts and Chargers during the last two weeks. This Jaguars squad, led by former Eagles coach Doug Pederson, is constructed just like the Eagles. The offensive line is opening up working lanes and defending Trevor Lawrence, whereas the defensive position has gotten after opponents. Rookie linebacker Devin Lloyd continues on his path towards the rookie defensive participant of the 12 months with 24 tackles and two interceptions.
With each groups having the identical blueprint for achievement, you must seize the factors early within the week with the Jaguars. This line will drop as we get nearer to kickoff when everybody realizes the Jaguars are literally good.
Additionally, value noting the Eagles might leap out to a giant lead as they've the primary three video games. Don't fret. The Eagles have been up 38-21 late within the third quarter however solely completed with a three-point win. The Eagles didn't rating a second-half level in opposition to the Vikings or Commanders. The Jaguars are a staff that won't give up and can proceed to battle even when they get down. This implies a reside wager if Jacksonville will get down may be one other spot to have a look at.
PICK: Jaguars (+6.5 at FOX Guess) to lose by fewer than 6.5 factors (or win outright)
Chiefs @ Buccaneers (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)
Who would have thought a matchup between one of the best quarterback of all time and one of the best present quarterback within the league can be about protection? However that is precisely what we'll see on Sunday — a low-scoring defensive matchup.
For the Chiefs, we're seeing the consequences of getting no Tyreek Hill on the roster. It isn't that the Chiefs can’t generate explosive passing performs. It is simply that Mahomes doesn’t have a receiver he trusts when he breaks the pocket. On third down, he doesn’t have a go-to weapon but. The Chiefs' offense scored 20 factors in opposition to each the Chargers and Colts within the final two weeks whereas wanting sluggish at occasions. The Bucs' protection is ranked first in defensive DVOA after three weeks, and I worry they may flip the Chiefs right into a one-dimensional staff by taking away their potential to run. That permits the cross rush to warmth up, and identical to most quarterbacks, Mahomes is not going to be as crisp with stress in his face.
Tampa Bay's offense is ranked twenty seventh in DVOA and has solely scored 44 factors on offense by three weeks. The Bucs' accidents, together with Mike Evans' single-game suspension, have halted their offensive manufacturing. It feels that easy. Whenever you’re down a number of offensive linemen and lacking three of your prime receiving choices, you'll rating 12 factors in opposition to a great Packers protection.
Properly, the Chiefs' protection may be essentially the most improved single unit this season. They're ranked ninth in effectivity by three weeks. They’ve lastly discovered a cross rush and are so energetic within the again finish with their velocity and size. Mike Evans is again for the Bucs, however their offensive line will nonetheless function not less than two backups. Is Godwin or Jones again? There are nonetheless too many unknowns for the Bucs offense.
I’m taking the below right here.
PICK: Underneath 45.5 factors scored by each groups mixed at FOX Guess
Seahawks @ Lions (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
This sport is tough to handicap for the reason that Lions' damage report options half of their beginning offense as of Thursday morning. And I don’t really feel snug blindly wagering on the Seahawks as a result of they're smelly. So I imagine the play is taking Geno Smith below 252.5 passing yards.
This can be a excessive complete and an overreaction to Smith throwing for 325 yards final weekend. Beforehand, Smith had thrown for below 200 yards in his first two begins. In his three begins final season, Smith didn't throw for greater than 209 yards. The Lions' protection has not allowed greater than 252 yards throwing in two of their first three video games. Additionally, Detroit has points with stopping the run, and Pete Carroll will likely be more than pleased to run the soccer the whole sport.
This quantity is simply manner too excessive. Give me Smith below passing yards.
PICK: Geno Smith Underneath 252.5 passing yards
Cardinals @ Panthers (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
Gross sport.
As a highway underdog, Kliff Kingsbury is 14-3 in opposition to the unfold because the Cardinals head coach. Carolina’s head coach Matt Rhule is barely 3-10 in opposition to the unfold when his Panthers are the favourite. You recognize what's even worse than Rhule's document in that class? It is quarterback Baker Mayfield's document as the favourite. He’s 33% in opposition to the unfold, and that’s simply brutal. So sure, the tendencies level towards Arizona. Nevertheless, the Cardinals have performed terribly this season and are simply so not reliable as a staff. They're poorly coached and sometimes want quarterback Kyler Murray to avoid wasting the staff.
That’s not dependable every week.
Whereas Baker Mayfield has not been crisp this season, I do assume this weekend he'll play properly. He should play properly as a result of it seems the Panthers will likely be with out Christian McCaffrey, and the offense might want to run by Mayfield's arm. He’s going through a Cardinals protection that has allowed 281 yards passing per sport by the primary three weeks of the season.
The variety of 205.5 is just too low for what Mayfield will do on Sunday.
PICK: Baker Mayfield Over 205.5 passing yards
Geoff Schwartz performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 completely different groups. He began at proper deal with for the College of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior 12 months. He's an NFL analyst for FOX Sports activities. Observe him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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