How sharp bettors are enjoying Eagles-Cowboys, Penn State-Michigan; playing nuggets

By Patrick Everson
FOX Sports activities Playing Author

Sunday’s conflict between the Buffalo Payments and Kansas Metropolis Chiefs will be likened to a kind of Eighties adverts for an FM radio station:

Lock it in, and rip off the dial.

Payments at Chiefs is well probably the most enticing matchup on the NFL Week 6 oddsboard and probably the most anticipated recreation of the common season. That’s due totally to the ridiculously entertaining playoff recreation between these two groups final January.

Following are insights on the Payments-Chiefs showdown and Penn State-Michigan, together with a number of extra betting nuggets on NFL Week 6 odds and school soccer Week 7 odds.

Circle the Wagons

Within the AFC Divisional Playoffs final season, the Payments and Chiefs fought to a 36-36 attract regulation after an insane remaining two minutes at Arrowhead Stadium.

To recount: Josh Allen led Buffalo to a landing and 2-point conversion with 1:54 remaining, giving the Payments a 29-26 lead. Patrick Mahomes and Okay.C. adopted simply 52 seconds later with a landing to maneuver forward, 33-29.

A mere 49 seconds later, the Payments put up one other TD to nab a 36-33 lead. That left simply 13 seconds on the clock.

However Mahomes rapidly maneuvered the Chiefs into place for a 39-yard discipline purpose, tying it at 36 to drive additional time. Then the Chiefs received the coin toss and drove proper down the sector to win, 42-36.

The Payments have been stewing ever since. And on this occasion, they return to Kansas Metropolis as 2.5-point highway favorites quite than 2.5-point underdogs, as was the case in January.

"There's a lot to unpack on this recreation," WynnBet dealer John Manica stated. "The WynnBet mantra in 2021 was no person circles the wagons just like the Buffalo Payments, and our buying and selling room booked towards all of them week main as much as the basic final season."

What Manica means by that: WynnBet took a place on that recreation wherein it wanted a Buffalo highway victory, or a minimum of for the Payments to cowl as 2.5-point underdogs. With a unique coin-toss final result, WynnBet’s danger room may need gotten the end result it sought. However alas …

"Ache ensued when Kansas Metropolis pulled off the miracle discipline purpose and received in additional time. I'm not positive if we now have totally recovered from it," Manica stated. "Quick-forward to the rematch, and each groups seem like they're the category of the AFC. We've taken heavy motion on Okay.C. at plus-money on the moneyline."

Certainly, it’s uncommon for the Chiefs to be an underdog, and much more so a house underdog. In actual fact, that is the primary time Mahomes is a house underdog in his profession. Some bettors are forgoing the two.5 factors and as a substitute taking Kansas Metropolis to win outright at +125 for a greater payout.

However as Manica famous, there’s so much to unpack.

"There are a number of conflicting betting angles within the recreation, he stated. "The Payments have the super-revenge angle however are off a blowout win. Then you've gotten a Kansas Metropolis workforce that received a detailed Monday Night time Soccer recreation towards a divisional opponent. That is usually a state of affairs the place the workforce off a blowout win will get overvalued. The house-field benefit at Arrowhead is actual, as one other basic showdown is probably going within the playing cards.

"This one is up for grabs for sharps and leisure bettors. I count on the house ‘canine Kansas Metropolis cash to pile on, and as soon as once more [us] needing the Payments."

The Sharp Facet

No less than one skilled bettor has already taken a place – twice – on the huge Payments-Chiefs conflict.

"I took Buffalo -2, and I took Buffalo choose ‘em on the look-ahead quantity [last week], as nicely," he stated. "Buffalo is the most effective workforce within the NFL. The line of defense would be the distinction."

The Payments enter Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff at 4-1 straight up (SU) and 3-1-1 towards the unfold (ATS). The Chiefs are additionally 4-1 SU however simply 2-3 ATS. Buffalo and Kansas Metropolis are Nos. 1 and a couple of, respectively, in odds to win the Tremendous Bowl.

One other play for this sharp bettor goes towards the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals.

"New Orleans +2. The Cincinnati offensive line can be examined on this matchup," he stated. "And Michael Thomas needs to be again for the Saints. Take the house workforce."

Bengals-Saints is a 1 p.m. ET Sunday begin.

Faculty Soccer Rocks on FOX

Let’s return to highschool for a number of moments right here, as there are some monster video games within the school soccer Week 6 odds market. A kind of is the Huge Midday on FOX battle between two Huge Ten unbeatens: No. 10 Penn State at No. 5 Michigan.

Michigan is 6-0 SU/3-3 ATS, whereas Penn State is 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS. Skilled bettors leaned into the Nittany Lions early this week at The SuperBook, and the general public appears to love Penn State a bit, too.

"Sharp play on Penn State +7.5 and on Below 53," SuperBook danger supervisor/oddsmaker Neil Fitzroy stated, alluding to betting on the unfold and the overall. "There’s loads of Penn State assist at +7, as nicely. Fifty-seven p.c of [point-spread] tickets are on Penn State.

"There’s restricted curiosity on Michigan at -7. I wouldn’t be stunned if this closes Michigan -6.5."

In distinction, WynnBet is seeing the landing residence favourite get a bit extra consideration.

"We have been writing a good variety of tickets on either side, however a majority of the [money] is on Michigan at this level," WynnBet junior dealer Caden Wickwire stated.

In one other FOX-televised recreation, No. 7 USC places its 6-0 SU mark (4-2 ATS) on the road towards No. 20 Utah (4-2 SU and ATS). Apparently, the Utes are consensus 3.5-point residence favorites, however USC is getting a lot of the consideration.

"Sharp play on USC at +4, and 79% of tickets on USC," Fitzroy stated of motion by Wednesday evening at The SuperBook, for this 8 p.m. ET Saturday evening showdown.

Staying in College

Saturday’s largest matchup is within the SEC, with No. 3 Alabama touring to No. 6 Tennessee. Very like Penn State-Michigan, the winner on this conflict of unbeatens stays on monitor within the Faculty Soccer Playoff chase, whereas the trail will get rather more troublesome for the loser.

Alabama (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) is a consensus 7-point favourite, however oddsmakers at a number of sportsbooks – together with The SuperBook – stated Tennessee (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) is kind of standard this week.

"The cash and ticket rely [favored] Tennessee at +7.5. We’re presently at 7, and there’s nonetheless no real interest in ‘Bama," The SuperBook’s Fitzroy stated.

Kickoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Sunday Night time Lights

Heading again to the NFL, the unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) host the stunning Dallas Cowboys (4-1 SU and ATS). Dallas has been with out Dak Prescott (thumb) since Week 1 and isn’t anticipated to have him within the Sunday evening recreation both. However the Cowboys are 4-0 SU and ATS behind backup QB Cooper Rush and a strong protection.

"Dallas discovered nice fortune towards the Rams final week, having a number of key conditions break its approach," WynnBet dealer John Manica stated of the Cowboys’ 22-10 upset of the host Rams. "The underlying numbers for the Eagles present that they're each bit nearly as good as their 5-0 file. Nevertheless, some will query the energy of their opponents.

"We took a pointy early wager on the Eagles -5.5. However very like final week, the Cowboys’ type and a low complete of 42 will definitely stimulate motion on the Cowboys, who're presently at +6. I count on a excessive quantity of wagers on this prime-time conflict, with opinions forming on either side of the present quantity."

Down and Out

Miami can’t maintain its quarterbacks wholesome, which is definitely impacting the NFL Week 6 odds for the Dolphins’ residence tilt towards the Minnesota Vikings. Tua Tagovailoa stays in concussion protocol, and so too does backup Teddy Bridgewater. So third-string rookie Skylar Thompson will get the beginning.

The Dolphins are consensus 3.5-point underdogs, together with at WynnBet.

"The quarterback state of affairs for the Dolphins is in unhealthy form," Manica stated. "In comes the third-stringer Skylar Thompson, who [played] a lot of the recreation final week towards the Jets when Teddy Bridgewater went down. That have is definitely useful, because the Vikings come into an atmosphere that they typically have hassle with – out of doors highway video games. Verify [Minnesota’s] consequence towards the Eagles earlier this yr. It was a 24-7 beatdown at Philadelphia, and it was not that shut."

Manica famous that final week’s look-ahead line for this recreation was a choose ‘em however now sits at Vikes -3.5 because of the Dolphins’ QB scarcity. Bettors aren’t actually keen on both workforce.

"Laying 3.5 with the Vikings open air or taking a third-string quarterback has not been an interesting set-up for bettors so far," Manica stated. "I do count on cash to return in on the Vikings, as the general public will certainly wish to again the workforce with a greater file in comparison with an unknown quarterback. Maybe an upset is brewing."

Over at FOXBet, buying and selling operations senior supervisor Dylan Brossman stated as of Wednesday evening, the Vikings are one in every of this week’s hottest bets to cowl the unfold. Additionally standard: the San Francisco 49ers, who're 5.5-point favorites on the Atlanta Falcons.

That’s a wrap on this midweek report. Might all of your bets be winners!

Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He beforehand labored for Covers and is a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting house. He’s based mostly in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Comply with him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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