Patrick Everson
FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst
Certain, the NFL Week 17 odds board has a bunch of notable video games, which is to be anticipated. However the School Soccer Playoff semifinal odds are additionally entrance and middle this weekend.
High-ranked Georgia goals to remain on monitor for a second straight nationwide championship when it takes on No. 4 Ohio State within the Peach Bowl on Saturday night time. Previous to that, No. 2 Michigan and No. 3 TCU sq. off within the Fiesta Bowl.
Extra on each of these video games, and loads of NFL Week 17 betting nuggets, coming your means. Let's leap into this week's playing nuggets and intel.
Ohio State vs. Georgia: Peach Bowl Preview
Joel Klatt breaks down the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs dealing with off in opposition to the No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes within the Peach Bowl.
RELATED: Week 17 NFL strains
CFP semifinal line on the transfer
Georgia has gone from a consensus -6.5 to -5.5 over the past 24 hours (Friday to Saturday) on account of some large bets and sharp motion.
On Friday, a bettor positioned $55,000 on Ohio State +6.5. Caesars termed that wager as a "revered" play.
Per Caesars Sportsbook's Max Meyer, extra large bets have are available in on the Buckeyes early Saturday, together with $100,000 on Ohio State +6 and $50,000 on the moneyline (+210).
As the massive sport will get nearer, this line is unquestionably shifting in direction of the underdog.
Huge Ten non-believer
Rex Beyers, a veteran oddsmaker and present head of wagering at PlayUp US, has ideas on each CFP semifinals. And people ideas don’t favor the convention that despatched two colleges to the four-team playoff.
"I don’t ever need to want a Huge Ten workforce," Beyers mentioned of a place he appears to be like to keep away from in his bookmaking course of.
For a lot of the previous 4 weeks, Georgia has been a consensus 6.5-point favourite in opposition to Ohio State (together with at FOX Guess) after opening -7 at most sportsbooks. Beyers isn’t offered on that half-point transfer towards the Buckeyes and, the truth is, expects it to return up earlier than the 8 p.m. ET kickoff on New 12 months’s Eve.
"These Huge Ten groups, once you put them within the deepest of waters with an SEC workforce, I don’t need to want them," Beyers reiterated. "Simply from speaking to individuals, and in addition my opinion about SEC groups once they’re really making an attempt, the road has a greater probability of going to 7 moderately than 6."
Whether or not it goes to Georgia -7 or not, rely on Beyers and his threat workforce to make the Ohio State worth as enticing as potential, to attract as a lot Buckeyes cash as potential and have the guide needing the Bulldogs.
As for the opening semifinal, a 4 p.m. ET New 12 months’s Eve begin, Michigan was a consensus -9 on the opening line and touched -9.5 at some books. Once more, Beyers isn’t shopping for it.
"I may by no means justify the quantity being that top," he mentioned.
And certainly, it didn’t final lengthy. This matchup has been painted to Michigan -7.5 a lot of this month, together with at PlayUp, the place the Wolverines are -7.5 (-111).
"TCU misplaced to Kansas State," Beyers mentioned, alluding to the 31-28 additional time setback within the Huge 12 title sport. "I didn’t dock TCU in any respect for that. All they did was discover methods to beat groups all 12 months."
SATURDAY'S GAMES (odds by way of FOX Guess)
Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, Arizona)
No. 3 TCU vs No. 2 Michigan (4 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Level unfold: Michigan -7.5 (Michigan favored to win by greater than 7.5 factors, in any other case TCU covers)
Moneyline: Michigan -303 favourite to win (guess $10 to win $13.30 complete); TCU +225 underdog to win (guess $10 to win $32.50 complete)
Complete scoring over/beneath: 58.5 factors scored by each groups mixed
3
TCU Horned Frogs
TCU
2
Michigan Wolverines
MICH
Peach Bowl (Atlanta)
No. 4 Ohio State vs No. 1 Georgia (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Level unfold: Georgia -5.5 (Michigan favored to win by greater than 5.5 factors, in any other case Ohio State covers)
Moneyline: Georgia -278 favourite to win (guess $10 to win $13.60 complete); Ohio State +205 underdog to win (guess $10 to win $30.50 complete)
Complete scoring over/beneath: 62.5 factors scored by each groups mixed
4
Ohio State Buckeyes
OSU
1
Georgia Bulldogs
UGA
Certainly, the Horned Frogs went 12-0 straight up (SU) and a formidable 9-2-1 in opposition to the unfold (ATS) within the common season. Behind quarterback Max Duggan, TCU actually fell a few yard in need of being 13-0 SU in rallying late to power additional time vs. Kansas State.
"Michigan hasn’t seen any QB who resembles Duggan," Beyers mentioned. "You begin giving TCU 7.5 factors, that’s nonetheless value a shot, for my part. I give the Horned Frogs probability to win the sport."
Extra on the CFP semis later on this article.
'Packers' playoff hopes are alive'
Darly Johnston and Joe Davis talk about the Inexperienced Bay Packers' essential win over the Miami Dolphins on Christmas.
Is the Pack again?
The Minnesota Vikings are 12-3 SU – although a a lot much less notable 6-8-1 ATS – whereas the Inexperienced Bay Packers needed to win their final three video games simply to succeed in 7-8 SU and ATS.
Minnesota nonetheless has a shot on the NFC’s No. 1 seed within the playoffs and is making an attempt to maintain the No. 2 seed, with San Francisco surging.
However the Vikes are underdogs this week at Lambeau Discipline. WynnBet opened the Packers -3.5 Sunday night time, dipped to -3 Monday, then returned to -3.5 Wednesday.
"It is a sport that has taken on new that means for the Packers as they stayed alive within the playoff race by beating the Dolphins final week," WynnBet senior dealer John Manica mentioned. "We've acquired two-way sharp motion on this sport. Respectable sources have guess the +3.5 with the Vikings. After we transfer the road to -3, somebody rapidly snaps up the Packers.
"I've mentioned earlier than that I concern backing Minnesota on the highway outdoor, however that angle involves fruition when dealing with groups with a successful report. The Packers sit at 7-8, within the hunt. A real toss-up sport. I extremely doubt we see a significant transfer in both course, with the sport getting batted round the important thing variety of 3 all week."
The sharp aspect
Within the weekly check-in with one skilled bettor in Las Vegas, three video games have his consideration on the NFL Week 17 odds board. First up, he acquired forward of the Cowboys-Titans sport, taking Dallas on final week’s look-ahead line – earlier than the Ryan Tannehill damage information broke – at -3.5/-4.
That quantity is all the best way as much as Cowboys -12.5 at FOX Guess for the Thursday night time sport. Extra on that matchup later.
The bettor additionally acquired forward of the Tua Tagovailoa information, betting New England at decide ‘em for Sunday’s sport in opposition to Miami. The Patriots are as much as -3. And he’s acquired another matchup he anticipates firing on: Buffalo at Cincinnati, with the Payments a 1/1.5-point favourite.
"I’ll be on Buffalo, as effectively. Greatest workforce with the very best participant," he mentioned, alluding to Payments QB Josh Allen. "Joe Burrow struggles with groups that may cross rush, and Buffalo is correct on the high of that checklist. And the damage to La’el Collins is gigantic."
The Bengals proper sort out suffered a torn ACL/MCL at New England in Week 16, so Collins’ season is over.
Payments-Bengals is unquestionably this week’s marquee matchup, hopefully offering an entertaining Monday Night time Soccer matchup. A Buffalo win retains it atop the AFC playoff chase, whereas a Cincy victory retains the Bengals within the hunt for the highest seed.
Herd Hierarchy: Playoff-bound Chargers, Packers leap in Colin's High 10
Backwards hat Colin Cowherd reveals his High 10 groups heading into Week 17.
Is White’s aspect the best aspect?
On Sunday night, the Seattle Seahawks (7-8 SU, 6-9 ATS) opened as consensus 1.5-point favorites for his or her dwelling sport in opposition to the New York Jets (7-8 SU, 8-7 ATS). Then on Monday, the Jets introduced that Mike White would return because the beginning QB after lacking two video games with fractured ribs.
The NFL Week 17 odds board reacted swiftly, with New York shifting to a brief highway favourite, initially -1 or -1.5, relying on the sportsbook. The Jets then stretched to -2.5 at just a few locations, however as of Wednesday night time, the consensus appears to be -1.5.
And PlayUp’s Beyers isn’t seeing it. Like, in any respect.
"I imagine the QB change has led to an excessive overreaction. To suppose White is an unlimited improve is foolhardy, at greatest," Beyers mentioned. "Jacksonville bludgeoned the Jets up entrance on each side of the ball final week. It’s not all on the quarterback’s shoulder.
"We'd like the Jets for now, which is unlucky. We’re gonna be the very best quantity out there on the Jets till we get flipped, and we'd like the Seahawks."
Beyers is assured in working towards his guide needing Seattle.
"J-E-T-S – Simply Finish The Season. Groups have found out the Jets. They’ve reached their peak and are going the opposite means," Beyers mentioned. "QB is totally the rationale for the Jets to be favored, no matter the way it performs out on the sphere. However I imagine the Seahawks nonetheless have battle. For a workforce just like the Jets, they don’t go to Seattle usually. They haven’t skilled that ambiance.
"I can’t for the lifetime of me see how the Jets are the favourite."
No Tua, large drawback?
On one other key damage observe this week, it was introduced that Dolphins QB Tagovailoa is once more in concussion protocol. He received’t play in Sunday’s key AFC matchup in opposition to the Patriots.
Miami (8-7 SU, 7-8 ATS) is on a four-game shedding skid, going from a possible playoff darling to getting ready to lacking the postseason. New England (7-8 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) can be struggling, shedding 4 of its previous 5. Each are determined for a win.
"New England enormously broken its playoffs hopes two weeks in the past with the debacle in opposition to the Raiders. They adopted up that effort with a clueless three quarters in opposition to the Bengals, solely to fumble the sport away late within the fourth after a ferocious rally. How a lot is left within the tank?" WynnBet’s Manica puzzled. "Teddy Bridgewater must bridge the hole to the playoffs for Miami as Tua has now been dominated out."
WynnBet’s clients don’t suppose Bridgewater has the products.
"The foremost bets have all are available in on New England at totally different ranges," Manica mentioned. "The primary pop was at New England +2. We rapidly went to select ('em). Then, we had been hit just a few extra occasions earlier than reaching the important thing variety of 3, shifting by zero to seek out New England now the betting favourite. There was lastly a taker on the Dolphins at +3. The guide will certainly want Teddy B. and the Dolphins because the Patriots battle for his or her playoff lives."
At PlayUp, Beyers is worked up to want the underdog Dolphins.
"I've zero points with operating that sport low [on New England] and letting bettors drown us on the Patriots," Beyers mentioned, noting Wednesday night time his guide is at Patriots -3 (+101). "I don’t know what the Patriots have gotten left. I didn’t actually downgrade the Dolphins for the loss to Inexperienced Bay."
Even with Miami on a four-game slide, Beyers mentioned he believes the Patriots are the worst workforce the Dolphins have seen previously month. Miami’s losses had been at San Francisco, on the Chargers, on the Payments and residential in opposition to Inexperienced Bay.
"The Patriots are the worst of these 5, no momentum, no confidence," Beyers mentioned. "All Bridgewater does as a ‘canine is get the cash. We’ll want Miami, and that’s advantageous with me."
As FOX Sports activities' Sam Panayotovich famous, Bridgewater is an excellent 19-4 ATS as a highway underdog.
Double-digit offers
The Las Vegas Raiders shook issues up Wednesday by benching QB Derek Carr for the ultimate two video games, changing him with Jarrett Stidham. After all, that led to large odds motion for the Raiders’ sport in opposition to the 49ers on Sunday.
"In a shock transfer, [Josh] McDaniels determined to bench Carr and go together with Stidham at quarterback and a youth motion at different positions," WynnBet’s Manica mentioned. "We took a revered wager because the information of Carr’s benching was going down. The sport was sitting at [49ers] -6. We rapidly acquired guess as much as -7, then additional, making all of it the best way to -10 earlier than the market settled."
Manica added that the scenario within the AFC South additionally led to some attention-grabbing line motion in Thursday’s Cowboys-Titans sport.
"In a reasonably weird sequence of occasions, the Titans-Cowboys sport and the Jaguars-Texans sport can not influence the AFC South race in any means," Manica mentioned. "Tennessee has determined to relaxation a number of starters. The look-ahead quantity [last week] on this sport was someplace within the neighborhood of Dallas -3, however opened -9.5 [Sunday] at many sportsbooks, anticipating the disinterest of the Titans.
"Derrick Henry was dominated out [Wednesday]. We took a revered guess on the Cowboys after we had been at -10, driving us as much as the place the market at present sits at -12. The Titans have acquired no curiosity."
Extra on the CFP
WynnBet junior dealer Caden Wickwire provided just a few insights on the School Soccer Playoff odds on Wednesday.
First up, Ohio State vs. Georgia:
"We have seen good motion up to now," Wickwire mentioned. "We have taken an honest quantity on the Bulldogs at -6.5. I might think about there are lots of different books which might be in the identical boat and can do what they will to keep away from writing Buckeyes cash at +7, as UGA by [exactly] 7 could be a tricky tablet to swallow. As for the full, we have actually solely seen Over bets."
To make clear Wickwire’s level concerning the unfold: If the guide strikes the road to Georgia -7, and the Bulldogs win by 7, all of the Georgia -6.5 bettors receives a commission, and everybody who guess the Bulldogs or Buckeyes at 7 will get a refund. Not an excellent consequence for bookmakers.
And on TCU vs. Michigan:
"The motion has been a bit slower," Wickwire mentioned. "Nothing substantial on the aspect, because the market has appeared to choose [Michigan] -7.5. We've taken just a few first rate bets on the Underneath, with hardly any buyback, so I would not be shocked to see the full a bit decrease as we get nearer to kickoff."
It’s an absolute smorgasbord of soccer these subsequent few days. Don’t get carried away on the betting window or in your cellular app. You recognize, get pleasure from responsibly. Pleased New 12 months!
Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He's a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting area. He’s based mostly in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Comply with him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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Publish date: 2023-01-01 00:25:00
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