Greatest NFL playoff betting tendencies: Guess on Tom Brady vs. Cowboys, extra

Published:Mar 9, 202418:21
Greatest NFL playoff betting tendencies: Guess on Tom Brady vs. Cowboys, extra

After 18 lengthy weeks, it is lastly playoff time within the NFL! Tremendous Wild Card Weekend commences this Saturday, and FOX Sports activities Analysis has you coated in the case of the most effective historic tendencies for the primary spherical of the playoffs. 

The slate kicks off with the Seattle Seahawks touring to San Francisco to face the 49ers within the first matchup at 4:30 pm ET Saturday on FOX and the FOX Sports activities App. That sport is adopted by the Jacksonville Jaguars internet hosting the Los Angeles Chargers at 8:15 pm ET Three nice matchups then will happen on Sunday, together with New York Giants squaring off in opposition to the Minnesota Vikings at 4:30 pm ET on FOX and the FOX Sports activities App. Tremendous Wild Card Weekend will come to a detailed with a marquee matchup that includes the Tampa Bay Buccaneers internet hosting the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Evening Soccer.

We did a deep dive into playoff information to determine the most effective tendencies. We additionally checked out team- and player-specific tendencies, which ought to assist inform you on who to wager on in the case of these win-or-go-home video games.

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Tom Brady is ideal in opposition to the Cowboys

Regardless of recording his first dropping season at 8-9 this 12 months, Tom Brady has historical past on his aspect, because the 45-year-old has actually by no means misplaced to Dallas in his profession. Brady is an ideal 7-0 straight up (SU) when enjoying the Cowboys, regardless of being 4-3 in opposition to the unfold (ATS) (57.1%). 

FOX Guess presently has the Cowboys as 2.5-point favorites on the highway, a line that has already dropped a half-point from the opening quantity. 

Listed here are extra TB12 nuggets from a playing perspective:

  • Brady is 3-3 ATS (50%) and 4-2 SU (66.7%) within the wild-card spherical in his profession
  • Brady is 7-3 ATS and SU (70%) when an underdog in all playoff video games throughout his profession
  • Brady is 15-12-1 ATS (55.6%) and 20-8 SU (71.4%) in Monday video games in his profession
  • Brady is 5-5-1 ATS (50%) and 9-2 SU (81.8%) in prime-time (after 8 pm ET) playoff video games over his profession
  • Brady is 15-11-1 ATS (57.7%) and 22-5 S (81.5%) at residence in playoff video games in his profession

Rookies and quarterbacks making first playoff begin battle

Solely two rookie quarterbacks are making a playoff begin this weekend, with Skylar Thompson and Brock Purdy suiting up for the Miami Dolphins and 49ers, respectively. Sadly, Thompson may very well be in hassle, as rookie quarterbacks are a whopping 10-17 SU (37%) within the playoffs, in addition to 3-11 SU (21.4%) because the 2013 season. When wild-card weekend particularly, rookie quarterbacks are 4-7-1 ATS (36.4%) over the past 20 seasons. Miami is presently a 13.5-point underdog in opposition to the Buffalo Payments at FOX Guess. 

Nonetheless, the story is perhaps completely different for Purdy. He's 4-1 ATS (80%) and 5-0 SU in his first 5 profession begins, becoming a member of Ben Roethlisberger as the one rookies to start out 5-0 because the 1970 merger. He is additionally simply the third quarterback with a number of landing passes in every of his first 5 begins since 1950, becoming a member of Corridor of Famers Dan Marino and Billy Volek. Oddsmakers assume Purdy will get it executed, because the 49ers are 9.5-point favorites at FOX Guess.

Massive favorites dominate within the wild-card spherical

Talking of huge favorites, we wished to see how they've fared within the wild-card spherical traditionally, as we have now three groups favored by 9 or extra factors this weekend. At FOX Guess, the Cincinnati Bengals are 10-point favorites over the Baltimore Ravens, the 49ers are favored by 9.5-point over the Seahawks and the Payments are 13.5-point favorites over the Dolphins. 

Here is the breakdown of the info beneath:

  • Double-digit favorites are 8-1 ATS and SU (88.9%) within the wild-card spherical since 1996
  • Double-digit favorites are 9-1 ATS and SU (90%) in all playoff video games since 2011
  • Favorites of nine-plus factors are 11-1 ATS and SU (91.7%) within the wild-card spherical since 1992
  • There has by no means been a favourite bigger than 11.5 factors within the wild-card spherical – the Pittsburgh Steelers had been 11.5-point favorites in opposition to the Dolphins within the 2016 wild-card spherical, and the Chiefs had been additionally 11.5-point favorites in opposition to the Steelers within the 2021 wild-card spherical (each groups coated)

Groups that full a regular-season sweep usually are not so nice within the third matchup 

Three matchups within the wild-card spherical characteristic the third assembly between the 2 groups. The Bengals and Ravens, the Payments and Dolphins and the 49ers and Seahawks are all enjoying one another for the third time this season. Solely a type of matchups featured a sweep: The 49ers beat Seattle in each matchups. Whereas it is perhaps stunning, groups that full a regular-season sweep are simply 9-9-1 ATS (50%) and 12-7 SU (63.2%) within the third matchup when it comes within the wild-card spherical. 

When going again to the 1970 merger, groups that gained the primary two video games within the common season and play once more for a 3rd time in any playoff sport are 12-11 ATS (52.2%) and 14-9 SU (60.9%). It also needs to be talked about that the 49ers are on a 10-game win streak – the primary time in franchise historical past they've ended the common season on a double-digit win streak.

Historical past says the seven seed will seemingly lose within the Wild Card

For the reason that 1982 season, the seven seed is 1-5 ATS (16.7%) and 0-6 SU within the wild-card spherical. The one cowl got here within the 2020 season when the Chargers misplaced 27-24 to the Payments as 6.5-point underdogs. The seven seeds on this 12 months's playoff are the Dolphins (+13.5 vs. Payments) and the Seahawks (+9.5 vs. 49ers). 

Historic information says Chargers ought to win regardless of a small unfold

That is an attention-grabbing one, as the road opened at three factors in favor of the Chargers however has flipped-flopped from one again to 3 and now presently sits at 2.5 at FOX Guess. The matchup options two quarterbacks making their first playoff begins, in Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. 

Whereas it may not be relevant right here since each quarterbacks are in the identical scenario, it needs to be famous that signal-callers making their first playoff begin are 17-36-1 ATS (32.1%) and 18-36 SU (33.3%) – together with 1-4 ATS and SU (20%) final season. The one one to cowl was Joe Burrow in opposition to the Las Vegas Raiders in final 12 months's wild-card spherical, who confronted Derek Carr – who was additionally making his first playoff begin.

Here is why the tendencies just like the Chargers this weekend:

  • Jaguars are 3-10 ATS (23.1%) and 4-9 SU (30.8%) vs. the Chargers since 2003, together with 2-5 ATS (28.6%) and 3-4 SU (42.9%) at residence
  • Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS and 1-4 SU (20%) of their final 5 residence video games vs. the Chargers
  • Chargers are 6-2 ATS and SU (75%) within the wild-card spherical since 1982
  • Los Angeles is 3-0 ATS and 3-0 SU when enjoying on the highway within the wild-card spherical since 1982
  • Chargers are 7-2 ATS (77.8%) and 5-4 SU (55.6%) on the highway this season

With out Tua Tagovailoa, the Payments ought to cowl simply 

As talked about earlier, that is the most important unfold in a wild-card sport ever. Whereas Skylar Thompson did sufficient to get the Dolphins into the playoff in his Week 18 begin, a highway sport in Buffalo will probably be an excessive amount of to beat.

All of the tendencies level in the direction of Buffalo:

  • Payments are 8-5-1 ATS (61.5%) and 12-2 SU (85.7%) at residence within the playoffs within the Tremendous Bowl period (solely losses got here in 1966 and 1996)
  • Buffalo is 7-5-2 ATS (58.3%) and 12-2 SU (85.7%) as double-digit favorites below Sean McDermott
  • Dolphins are 1-3 ATS and SU (25%) on the highway within the wild-card spherical since 1995, their lone cowl/win got here in 1999
  • Miami is 4-8-1 ATS (33.3%) and 2-11 SU (15.4%) when highway underdog in all playoff video games within the Tremendous Bowl period

Preseason lengthy pictures have snuck their method into the wild-card spherical

That is extra of a nugget than a development, however we wished to level it out. There are three groups within the playoffs this 12 months that entered the season at 100-1 or higher odds to win the Tremendous Bowl: the New York Giants, Jaguars and Seahawks. There have been additionally a whopping 9 groups with a preseason Over/Underneath win whole of seven.5 or much less that hit the Over. 

So are you prepared to put some NFL Tremendous Wild Card Weekend bets? Head over to FOX Guess now for all of your wagers! 

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Publish date: 2023-01-13 07:34:37
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