Bryan Fischer
School Soccer Author
The Sport. The Sport. The Sport.
Sure, probably the most anticipated matchup of each faculty soccer season is upon us as undefeated No. 2 Ohio State takes on undefeated No. 3 Michigan on Saturday (Midday ET on FOX and the FOX Sports activities app), and the stakes are as excessive as ever.
That’s not hyperbole both, because the Huge Ten East will as soon as once more be determined when these two face off, and the ensuing journey to the convention title sport in Indianapolis carries the potential for excess of just some extra helmet stickers. The Wolverines want to defend their 2021 title whereas the Buckeyes are hoping to get again to their profitable methods with a sixth look at Lucas Oil Stadium in prime time subsequent weekend.
A Huge Ten Championship is simply desk stakes, nevertheless, as a berth to the School Soccer Playoff may be on the road — for each the winner and the loser.
[College Football Playoff Rankings: LSU to No. 5, USC to No. 6]
In mild of Tuesday’s antepenultimate set of rankings from the CFP Choice Committee, right here’s a have a look at how Saturday’s contest on the Horseshoe may find yourself producing two semifinalists come December, and what else may play out throughout the nation for varied groups nonetheless within the hunt for the nationwide title.
School Soccer Playoff Rankings: LSU, USC make a push
RJ Younger reacts to the CFP rankings for Week 13. Chalk on the high retains everybody in place, however two-loss LSU stays forward of 10-1 USC regardless of the Trojans' massive win over UCLA.
SCENARIO: TWO BIG TEN TEAMS GET IN
What must occur in "The Sport": The series between Ohio State and Michigan is 27-27-2 in Columbus, the place the Buckeyes haven't misplaced in convention play since 2015. Of all their wins in opposition to a sure rival to the north, nevertheless, probably the most controversial of the bunch could have come within the 2016 version.
The Wolverines have been main 27-24 in double time beyond regulation and defending fourth-and-1. Those that take pleasure in sporting maize or blue will say quarterback J.T. Barrett got here up just some inches brief, the written historical past tells us he picked up the primary down. The debates have been infinite over whether or not "The Spot" was right, however the finish end result was an Ohio State victory, a visit to the School Soccer Playoff, and a second that's certain to be replayed each time the 2 faculties meet with one thing on the road for eternity.
It will additionally enhance the prospect of each side reaching the CFP if one thing related occurred once more — particularly if Michigan got here out on high this time. The Wolverines have been frequently dinged for his or her non-conference slate and, as a result of Illinois isn't within the High 25, they'd have only one marquee victory to hold their hat on in Penn State.
If Ryan Day’s squad misplaced, nevertheless, it will not less than have higher wins, plus a streak of seven straight video games of 44 or extra factors to impress the committee and function a tie-breaker in opposition to different groups.
"TCU is 8-0 in opposition to groups above .500, which is de facto spectacular, and it has been spectacular to the committee, however once more, as we have a look at their capability to return again in video games — the place to a big diploma Ohio State and Michigan haven't," stated choice committee chairman and NC State athletic director Boo Corrigan on Tuesday. "And as I stated final week, that win over Notre Dame by Ohio State is a powerful second win on high of the Penn State win."
That’s to not say it’s not possible for a one-loss Michigan to stay within the high 4 and sure arrange a rematch of final 12 months’s Orange Bowl vs. Georgia. It will simply be loads trickier if it’s Jim Harbaugh’s aspect that has a dash-one in its file as an alternative of Day’s.
Ohio State vs. Michigan: An prolonged preview
The "Huge Midday Kickoff" crew provides its first prolonged preview of Ohio State vs. Michigan.
What else should occur: Notre Dame beats USC, Georgia beats LSU
Good to have: Kansas State upsets TCU within the Huge 12 Championship, North Carolina or South Carolina deal Clemson a second loss, Kentucky beats Louisville to take away a top-25 win from Clemson's résumé.
On this situation, the Trojans shedding at residence would make sure the Pac-12 champ would have not less than two losses and Ohio State’s non-conference win over the Irish would assuredly grow to be a top-10 victory on the résumé. Georgia would lock up the No. 1 CFP spot and it’s uncertain fellow non-division winners like Alabama or Tennessee (with out QB Hendon Hooker) would leapfrog Huge Ten groups with one fewer loss and an analogous variety of top-10 victories.
", we're actually trying on the entire physique of labor," added Corrigan. "Individuals have performed completely different folks all through the season, some stronger than others, and our purpose actually is to have a look at the entire resume at this level and guarantee that we're evaluating all the resume as an alternative of 1 single information level which you could get sucked into at occasions and ensuring that we're making the larger, broader determination that we've got to make and ensure we get that proper."
Projected CFP on this situation: 1. Georgia, 2. Michigan, 3. TCU, 4. Ohio State
Ohio State, Michigan each 11-0 heading into 'The Sport'
Joel Klatt touches on Blake Corum's standing and explains why Ohio State could have a bonus vs. Michigan.
SCENARIO: SEC, BIG TEN DOUBLE TROUBLE
If you would like CFP growth to occur sooner fairly than later, this is likely to be the one situation to root for.
What must occur in "The Sport": As detailed above, a detailed Michigan win over Ohio State.
What else should occur: Notre Dame beats USC, LSU beats Georgia within the SEC Championship Sport, TCU loses to Kansas State within the Huge 12 title sport and Clemson takes a second loss.
Good to have: North Carolina wins the ACC, Auburn wins the Iron Bowl.
Primarily based on how this performs out, there can be simply two one-loss groups left in Georgia and Ohio State. LSU can be in as SEC champ (and three top-10 wins on the résumé). Michigan can be the remaining undefeated. The Pac-12 and ACC champions wouldn’t have as many marquee victories on the résumé as both the Bulldogs or Buckeyes, and it will all come all the way down to these two applications in opposition to a TCU workforce that has constantly been knocked for taking part in so many shut, come-from-behind video games.
Projected CFP on this situation: 1. Michigan, 2. LSU, 3. Ohio State, 4. Georgia
SCENARIO: THE PAC-12’s PATH
As of now, 5 groups management their very own destiny in terms of the School Soccer Playoff: Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, LSU. The Bulldogs simply have to beat Georgia Tech they usually can sit fairly in terms of a semifinal berth. The others are in in the event that they win out.
That leaves No. 6 USC because the lone workforce with a viable alternative to win a convention title and end with only one loss, but not have all of it of their arms to make the ultimate 4.
What must occur in "The Sport": The Trojans would recognize Ohio State taking good care of enterprise and convincingly (or not less than comfortably) beating Michigan.
What else should occur: Georgia beats LSU, USC wins out.
Good to have: Clemson or TCU take a loss.
Lincoln Riley’s squad could not have a lot of a protection, however the Trojans can be sitting fairly in the event that they ran the desk and, crucially, UGA received the SEC. That may permit USC to maneuver previous LSU with not solely a greater file however a convention championship. The Pac-12 winners would have a greater résumé than Clemson and would have the nod over a typical opponent in Notre Dame.
It will assist issues much more if TCU was upset within the Huge 12 title sport, however the crux of the choice for the choice committee can be 11-1 Michigan vs. a 12-1 USC that's three spots behind within the rankings going into this weekend. The Trojans would have that convention title of their again pocket that the Wolverines wouldn't, plus high quality wins over Oregon, UCLA and Oregon State. UM, in the meantime, would have simply the 41-17 end result over Penn State amongst their high 25 victories. Additional, Michigan would find yourself with simply 4 wins over groups that made bowl video games in comparison with USC with as many as six. That’s a straightforward alternative by any metric.
Projected CFP on this situation: 1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. TCU, 4. USC
USC retains CFP hopes alive
Joel Klatt reacts to USC's massive victory over rival UCLA in Week 12.
SCENARIO: CLEMSON SNEAKS IN
It’s been some time since Dabo Swinney may get away that little ol' Clemson line and be proper, however the No. 8 Tigers stay within the periphery of the Playoff race with a viable path if issues break the best manner. Metrics-wise, they actually aren’t too far off at this level from the place they have been again in 2016 once they received a title regardless of a weak ACC slate. The distinction these days is that they don’t have an elite quarterback. The committee has seen, given the way in which they’ve handled the workforce up to now, protecting them behind No. 7 Alabama.
What must occur in "The Sport": Clemson wants Ohio State to roll Michigan in Columbus.
What else should occur: The Tigers should win out by good margins, have Georgia beat LSU in Atlanta, and see Notre Dame beat USC impressively.
Good to have: Auburn wins the Iron Bowl, Kansas State wins the Huge 12.
Once you lay it out on paper, this isn’t as chaotic as you'd assume, even when Clemson must battle historical past and grow to be the lowest-ranked workforce going into Week 13 to make it into the ultimate 4.
Of the three massive issues, solely two are actually that tough. The Bulldogs determine to be appreciable favorites over LSU of their second residence of Atlanta. Notre Dame and USC are rivals, however with the way in which the Irish are taking part in proper now and the state of the Trojans’ protection, that’s not a stretch of an upset prefer it was in, say, early October. Apparently, Ohio State blowing out Michigan at residence regardless of a season of frustration looks like probably the most tough factor to forecast.
Nonetheless, it’s not all out of the realm of potentialities.
Projected CFP on this situation: 1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. TCU, 4. Clemson
SCENARIO: PURE CHAOS FOR BAMA
Nick Saban is able to something, however most likely not conjuring up this.
What must occur in "The Sport": Ohio State beats Michigan within the neighborhood of 53-3.
What else should occur: Georgia thumps LSU, the Pac-12 champion isn’t USC, TCU takes two losses and Kansas State is Huge 12 champ. Clemson loses to South Carolina and UNC.
Good to have: Ole Miss simply wins the Egg Bowl over Mississippi State to complete 8-4, Kentucky beats Louisville (each would strengthen Bama's résumé).
Georgia and Ohio State profitable out retains them as the highest two seeds, whereas the three different Energy 5 champions (North Carolina, Oregon and Kansas State) would every have not less than two losses and an inferior résumé within the eyes of the committee. Michigan would doubtless nonetheless discover a manner in because the lone one-loss workforce, however the debate shifts to avoiding a rematch of The Sport in a semifinal. That paves the way in which for the Tide to go to the Fiesta Bowl and placed on a rematch of the championship sport from the COVID-impacted 2020 season.
Projected CFP on this situation: 1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. Alabama, 4. Michigan
Is the CFP committee is over-valuing Alabama?
Joel Klatt explains why the School Soccer Playoff committee's religion in Alabama is hurting the credibility of the game.
SCENARIO: THE 12-TEAMER
Can we simply cease and assume at how all these above situations pale examine to the enjoyable we'd get in a world of an expanded School Soccer Playoff? The talk can be much less about who's in and extra about the place they'd be seeded.
First-round video games:
No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Michigan in Ann Arbor
No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 LSU in Loss of life Valley
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Alabama in Tuscaloosa
No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Clemson in Loss of life Valley
These video games may produce a rematch of Oregon-Georgia from Week 1. Think about the storylines if James Franklin beat two SEC opponents in their very own place in the identical 12 months, earlier than heading to the Cotton Bowl to play TCU? A conventional Rose Bowl between the hotly debated Michigan and USC, who get to settle it out on the sphere? Signal us up. Then there’s the potential for an Alabama-Ohio State assembly within the Fiesta Bowl the place we get to see Bryce Younger and C.J. Stroud battle it out.
Sadly, that’s not the present ecosystem in faculty soccer. If there’s any solace, nevertheless, it’s that we not less than have a postseason that has loads driving on Saturday’s end result on the Horseshoe and a bunch of events far past the Buckeyes and Wolverines.
The 118th version of The Sport is shaping as much as be probably the most anticipated in current reminiscence, and it’s exhausting to not see why given what’s at stake for winner and loser alike.
Learn extra:
Bryan Fischer is a school soccer author for FOX Sports activities. He has been protecting faculty athletics for practically twenty years at retailers reminiscent of NBC Sports activities, CBS Sports activities, Yahoo! Sports activities and NFL.com amongst others. Observe him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.
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Publish date: 2022-11-23 17:24:42
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