School soccer odds Week 8: UCLA will cowl, different finest bets

Published:Mar 8, 202423:12
School soccer odds Week 8: UCLA will cowl, different finest bets

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports activities NFL Analyst

It’s already Week 8 within the faculty soccer season!

Final weekend, the house groups dealt with their enterprise in huge spots, and now it is time to look forward to how the house groups will fare this week.

My Geese are at residence this week. Are they one of many groups that I feel can grasp on and shield their turf? What about TCU in that huge matchup they've in opposition to Kansas State? Can the Horned Frogs get the straight-up win and canopy?

Hold studying to search out out my finest bets for school soccer Week 8 (odds by way of FOX Guess).

No. 9 UCLA at No. 10 Oregon (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX and FOX Sports activities App)

The Pac-12 with one other weekend of juice! I find it irresistible. It is a top-10 matchup, and a lot of the faculty soccer media sphere will likely be in Eugene for this recreation. 

The UCLA Bruins are a stunning 6-0 after getting back-to-back wins in opposition to ranked opponents within the Rose Bowl. Bruins quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who’s in his fifth season as quarterback for Chip Kelly’s Bruins, is having a unbelievable yr. He has thrown for 1,510 yards, finishing 74.8% of passes with 15 touchdowns to only two interceptions. He has added one other 231 yards on the bottom and 4 speeding touchdowns. 

Duke switch receiver Jake Bobo has change into Thompson-Robinson's favourite goal, with 385 yards and 5 touchdowns. The UCLA speeding assault, a staple of a profitable Chip Kelly offense, ranks sixteenth in speeding success fee. The Bruins' speeding assault is led by Zach Charbonnet, who's averaging greater than seven yards a keep it up his 87 rushes. The offense ranks eighth in factors per drive, first in third-and-out proportion and first in third-down success fee. 

UCLA's offense is a legit power.

And the Bruins protection is strong, too. 

That is simply the most effective protection UCLA has fielded underneath Kelly. An overdue change at defensive coordinator and a defensive roster that was constructed by means of the switch portal helped enhance this facet of the ball a lot. The Bruins rank forty fourth in factors per drive on protection, however they do an excellent job of limiting explosive performs. They're twelfth in explosive play fee. They've a bend-but-don’t-break method, and that is essential as a result of the Bruins aren’t that nice at stopping the run or the go. Nevertheless, they will rush the passer decently nicely, with two go rushers producing a ton of strain. 

Defensive deal with Laiatu Latu has 18 pressures with a 12.9% strain fee and Grayson Murphy, one of many Murphy twins, is subsequent with a 9.5% strain fee. Nevertheless, UCLA continues to be susceptible to permit factors in bunches, because it did in opposition to Utah and Washington within the second half of these video games. UCLA additionally struggled to place away South Alabama earlier within the season.

We would be speaking concerning the Geese as a playoff contender if Oregon had performed Georgia State as a substitute of the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 1. The offense ranks second within the nation in success fee and speeding success, third in passing success and ninth in factors per drive. That's all whereas taking part in backups within the second half and fourth quarter of a number of blowout wins. 

Quarterback Bo Nix leads the profitable Geese offense. That is a line I didn't count on to jot down this season. Nix is finishing 70.4% of passes with solely three interceptions. The Oregon offensive teaching workers places him in an excellent place for achievement with heavy play-action passes and fast empty throws. The Geese offense additionally options Nix’s legs, as he has rushed for 331 yards and eight speeding touchdowns. The Oregon offense is pushed by its offensive line — among the best within the nation. The O-line has not allowed a sack attributed to them (one sack on a free rusher), and the three major runners have over 6.5 yards per carry.

The Oregon protection is an fascinating group. They rank a hundredth in factors per drive, thirty third in opposition to the run and 107th in passing success fee. They don't generate a lot strain with their entrance 4. They've one wonderful nook in Christian Gonzalez, after which they maintain on for pricey life with the opposite facet of the sector. Nevertheless, I imagine they're higher than given credit score for. 

We have now to exclude the Georgia recreation when discussing the Geese. Since then, their beginning protection has not allowed many factors. The Geese have pulled their defensive starters late within the third quarter in a number of blowouts this season, resulting in extra factors for the opposing offense.

BYU scored 13 of its 20 factors within the fourth quarter. Stanford scored 17 of its 27 within the remaining 17 minutes after the Geese led 38-10. Arizona, a crew averaging greater than 30 factors a recreation, excluding the sport in opposition to Oregon, had simply 16 factors getting into the fourth quarter. I feel you get my level. The worst recreation for the Oregon protection was in opposition to Washington State, the place the Cougars generated three explosive go performs by way of the trick play. There are reliable considerations concerning the protection, as referenced above, however the unit is healthier than given credit score for.

As you'll be able to see, these groups are mirror photographs, and I feel Oregon will win, however UCLA will cowl. 

We’ve seen all through faculty soccer – and even straight within the Pac-12 Convention – it’s freaking onerous to win on the highway. Alabama, Oklahoma State and USC simply discovered that final weekend. Utah at UCLA discovered that the week earlier than. UCLA’s solely highway recreation this season was in Colorado. That hardly counts as an away recreation

Enjoying in Autzen Stadium will likely be an expertise on Saturday. Oregon hasn’t misplaced a house convention recreation since 2018 or an out-of-conference residence recreation since 2010, and they're freaking onerous to beat in Eugene. 

Oregon’s speeding protection is legit, and I feel the offensive line can management the UCLA go rush. However it is going to be shut, so I’ll take the factors with UCLA. The Geese will win, however the Bruins offense will preserve them on this recreation.

PICK: UCLA (+6.5 at FOX Guess) to lose by fewer than 6.5 factors (or win outright)

Indiana at Rutgers (Midday ET Saturday, Huge Ten Community)

On this recreation that includes two groups on three-game dropping streaks, the underneath goes to be the favored wager within the recreation. However I’m going to take Rutgers -3 to keep away from a public underneath wager. 

Each of those offenses are poor. Rutgers ranks 104th in factors per drive whereas Indiana ranks 102nd at ending drives with factors. Rutgers is a hundredth in explosive play fee; Indiana is 127th. Rutgers is 123rd in passing success fee, and Indiana is one hundred and twentieth. I feel you get the image. 

Nevertheless, Rutgers' poor offense can considerably be attributed to its current schedule. The Scarlet Knights have performed Iowa and Ohio State. Each of these defenses sit within the prime 5 in effectivity. Whereas the Hoosiers simply performed Michigan, their schedule of opposing defenses hasn’t been fairly as robust.

There are two spots on this recreation the place I feel Rutgers has a giant benefit. First, the Knights can rush the soccer, though they don't generate explosive performs. They're forty eighth in speeding success fee with operating again Samuel Brown averaging 4.7 yards per carry. As talked about above, Rutgers' passing assault is terrible, however the squad is taking part in an Indiana protection that's simply OK. Indiana's protection is 119th in passing success fee and ranks seventy fifth in factors per drive. 

The second purpose to love Rutgers on this matchup is the protection. The Knights' D is thirty third in factors per drive. Their protection is sweet at limiting explosive performs, stopping the run and never permitting a lot passing success. Their secondary is sweet at creating havoc performs, which incorporates go breakups and interceptions. 

Rutgers is a extra refined general crew. I just like the Scarlet Knights to cowl at residence.

PICK: Rutgers (-3 at FOX Guess) to win by greater than 3 factors

No. 17 Kansas State at No. 8 TCU (8 p.m. ET Saturday, FS1)

TCU is what occurs whenever you take a defensive-minded crew for 20 years and exchange that head coach with an offensive mastermind. 

TCU head coach Sonny Dykes has all the time been in a position to coach his air raid assault to attain factors, however he typically doesn't have the protection to match his offense. This season at TCU he does. 

The Horned Frogs rank fifth in offense and 53rd in protection — an excellent stability for a profitable Huge 12 crew. The Horned Frogs are first in faculty soccer in offensive explosive play fee behind the arm of Max Duggan and on the legs of Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado. Whereas Kansas State's protection is sweet general rating ninth in effectivity, the Wildcats don’t create havoc with their line of defense. For those who can’t get tackles for loss or get strain along with your go rush, you’re not stopping this TCU offense. 

An enormous deal is being made about Okay-State’s quarterback Adrian Martinez having zero interceptions by means of six video games. Whereas spectacular and far completely different from his time at Nebraska, his offense virtually by no means places him in unhealthy conditions to go due to its skill to run the soccer. 

Martinez has solely 138 passing makes an attempt this season with 91 speeding makes an attempt. Deuce Vaughn, KSU's wonderful operating again, has 120 rushes for 661 yards. Kansas State is just 69th in speeding success fee and eighty fifth in passing success, regardless of as soon as once more attempting to restrict go makes an attempt. 

The TCU protection is greater than geared up to deal with the Kansas State offensive assault.

I like TCU to cowl. 

PICK: TCU (-3.5 at FOX Guess) to win by greater than 3.5 factors

Geoff Schwartz performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 completely different groups. He began at proper deal with for the College of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior yr. He's an NFL analyst for FOX Sports activities. Observe him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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Publish date: 2022-10-20 01:12:13
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