By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst
When five-star quarterback recruit Arch Manning dedicated to play soccer for the Texas Longhorns in late June, you may nearly hear the celebrations and jubilations from Austin.
Manning’s determination didn’t change the betting odds for the upcoming season – Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia are nonetheless the heavy hitters to win the 2023 CFP Nationwide Championship – however it is going to actually assist swing the pendulum over the following decade and restore order to a storied Longhorn program.
And whereas Manning gained’t take a regular-season snap in burnt orange for at the very least 14 extra months, the recruiting domino impact shall be fascinating to observe.
As my FOX Sports activities teammate Joel Klatt said final month, "Steve Sarkisian could have gained probably the most coveted prize we could have ever seen in recruiting. It’s not simply because that man selected Texas, it’s that the Manning household selected Texas."
To interrupt down Manning's influence from a playing perspective, I rounded up 9 Las Vegas betting buddies to get their ideas on Arch Manning’s dedication to Sarkisian and what it means for the Longhorns' future.
These are their tales.
"I’m on trip, mi amigo," stated WynnBET vp of buying and selling Alan Berg.
Welp. Fortunately, Berg’s lieutenant Motoi Pearson was able to rock.
"Arch has discovered him a pleasant residence at Texas," the WynnBET senior dealer instructed FOX Sports activities. "[Sarkisian] is discovering some gifted offensive items to encompass any quarterback. And any legit quarterback needs to be value at the very least a landing if he needs to be like Peyton.
"Do I feel he possesses that sort of expertise? Sure. However solely time will inform."
Pearson’s insinuation that Manning may very well be value seven factors to the betting line sooner or later could be very robust. Current Heisman Trophy winners Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson have been all value round a landing, if no more.
Bryce Younger’s worth is up there, too, but it surely’s more durable to quantify his true worth as a result of Alabama is an offensive juggernaut, and Nick Saban would simply drop one other blue-chip prospect underneath middle if Younger went down.
Both method, Texas is undoubtedly dreaming about Manning reaching his potential. Extra importantly, you do not simply get Manning while you efficiently persuade a participant of that caliber to commit. You open the door to a brand new slew of offensive weapons that can crave a chance to play with the following Eli or Peyton.
"[Manning’s signing] speaks to the standard of recruits they’re bringing in and this system being heading in the right direction," Circa Sports activities sportsbook director Matt Metcalf stated. "I might be stunned if Sarkisian doesn’t have success there, as he’s an awesome offensive man, and it shouldn’t be troublesome to get the items there.
"I’ve been ready for the return of Texas to elite standing, and I imagine they've a shot at getting there once more with Manning."
Metcalf’s pal John Murray is paying shut consideration to recruiting, too.
"We see the experiences about them crushing it on the recruiting path, so we're positively conserving a detailed eye on it," the Westgate SuperBook govt director stated. "However Texas is nearly at all times a classy workforce, they usually’ve been letting individuals down for years taking part in within the Massive 12. It’s about to get rather a lot more durable for them once they transfer to the SEC [in 2025]. We gained’t make important changes till they present us one thing on the sphere."
"Texas is a big-time program that has performed like a Mountain West program for the final a number of years," US Bookmaking director of operations Robert Walker added. "The Horns have been common in each sense of the phrase, so it’s fascinating to see them land a participant like Arch Manning.
"Nonetheless, I nonetheless really feel like Texas will underachieve by some means. Expectations are at all times excessive in Longhorn Land, and now they’re by the roof. And I’m not the largest Steve Sarkisian fan both as a result of no person leaves Washington or Washington State and doesn’t really feel my wrath."
"Texas gonna Texas," former Las Vegas oddsmaker Aaron Kessler cracked.
Different bookmakers stay inquisitive about Manning’s true potential. It’s one factor to look at him tear up seven-on-seven drills and dominate inferior excessive school-level competitors. It’s one other to be taking snaps within the vaunted SEC, which is lining as much as (be) the Longhorns’ residence for almost all of Arch’s profession.
"I don’t have sufficient tape of what he’s performed to this point, but when he's nearly as good as marketed, Texas will definitely be poised to compete from day one in opposition to the SEC heavyweights," PlayUp USA head of wagering Rex Beyers stated. "Manning has already helped a number of different 4 and five-star recruits who may need been on the fence to decide to Texas. Generally that is extra necessary than what Arch himself is value to this system."
"He was the primary freshman to start out on the varsity at his highschool on the varsity squad in 40 years," Rampart On line casino sportsbook director Duane Colucci stated. "There are tons of YouTube and Twitter movies exhibiting him ball out, however others imagine he would solely be a three-star prospect if he weren’t named Manning. Each Eli and Peyton have been profitable, so there’s no cause Arch gained’t be, however he nonetheless has an extended approach to go."
Then there’s the resident curmudgeon, who at all times jogs my memory that it’s necessary to remain within the second and preserve the horse in entrance of the cart.
"It’s a non-factor till he’s underneath middle for a workforce we line," Circa Sports activities assistant sportsbook supervisor Jeff Davis stated. "Till then, it’s about as related as Charlie Woods [Tiger's 13-year-old son] to win a golf match."
Regardless of Davis’ disdain within the current, Manning will quickly be competing with both Hudson Card or Quinn Ewers for QB1 standing on Sarkisian’s depth chart. And we’ll finally study Manning’s worth to the betting line and whether or not Texas can stand up and problem school soccer’s heavyweights.
Name me a sucker, however I can’t wait to see how Arch Manning’s collegiate profession unfolds, and I’m hoping the Texas Longhorns return to prominence.
A few of my fondest betting reminiscences are driving the Texas and "Over" prepare throughout Vince Younger and the Horns’ historic 13-0 season again in 2005. Texas completed 12-1 in opposition to the unfold (ATS) and 12-1 to the "Over" en path to a nationwide championship recreation victory over USC.
It's going to be a short time earlier than the Longhorns are legit contenders for one more title. Heading into the upcoming season, most American sportsbooks are dealing them at 50-1 or increased behind the likes of Texas A&M, USC, Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Michigan.
However that does not imply the Longhorn trustworthy aren't dreaming of one other confetti get together with Arch Manning at middle stage.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and NESN. He beforehand labored for WGN Radio, NBC Sports activities and VSiN. He'll most likely decide in opposition to your favourite workforce. Observe him on Twitter @spshoot.
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